ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s government is set to release the Economic Survey for the fiscal year (FY) 2024–25 tomorrow (Monday).
Preliminary figures show that the provisional Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate for FY 2023–24 was 2.68 per cent well below the government’s target of 3.6 per cent.
Despite missing the growth target, the size of Pakistan’s economy expanded by $39.3 billion, rising to $410.96 billion from $371.66 billion the previous year.
In local currency terms, the economy grew by Rs9.6 trillion, with the total value increasing to Rs 114.7 trillion, up from Rs 105.1 trillion a year earlier. Per capita income also rose by $144, reaching $1,680.
The survey outlines uneven performance across various sectors — while some industries exceeded expectations, others struggled to maintain growth momentum.
Agriculture
The agriculture sector recorded modest overall growth of just 0.56 per cent, falling short of the 2 per cent target. Major crops experienced a sharp decline of 13.49 per cent, significantly exceeding the anticipated contraction of 4.5 per cent. The cotton ginning segment also faced a notable downturn, shrinking by 19 per cent.
On a more positive note, livestock and other crops performed relatively well, posting growth rates of 4.72 per cent and 4.78 per cent, respectively. However, forestry and fishing continued to underperform, remaining below target levels.
Industry
The industrial sector showed moderate resilience, achieving a growth rate of 4.77 per cent, slightly surpassing the government’s 4.4 per cent target. Small-scale manufacturing and the slaughtering industry posted strong gains of 8.81 per cent and 6.34 per cent, respectively. In contrast, large-scale manufacturing declined by 1.53 per cent.
The electricity, gas, and water supply sector stood out with a remarkable growth rate of 28.88 per cent, far exceeding the modest 2.5 per cent target. The construction sector also outperformed expectations, expanding by 6.61 per cent.
Services
The services sector expanded by 2.91 per cent, falling short of its 4.1 per cent target. Wholesale and retail trade grew by a mere 0.14 per cent, reflecting weak consumer activity.
Sub-sectors such as information and communication, finance, real estate, education, health, and social work recorded moderate growth. Notably, public administration and social security posted a strong performance with a 9.92 per cent growth rate — nearly three times the 3.4 per cent target.
Assessment
The Economic Survey presents a picture of uneven and unbalanced economic performance. While certain sectors — including utilities, construction, and livestock — exceeded expectations, key areas such as agriculture, large-scale manufacturing, and trade significantly underperformed, weighing down overall economic growth.
These findings will shape the framework for the upcoming federal budget, as policymakers work to address sector-specific challenges and realign economic priorities to support a path toward sustainable recovery.
