ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s economy grew faster than earlier estimated in the financial year that ended on June 30, 2025, with the government revising its official GDP growth rate upward to 3.04 per cent from the earlier 2.68 per cent.
The News reported on Thursday, citing the National Accounts Committee (NAC), the revision reflects stronger performance in the final quarter (April–June 2025), when growth accelerated to 5.66 per cent, lifting the overall yearly average.
Key revisions
According to The News, the NAC’s 114th meeting approved revised quarterly growth figures:
Q1: raised from 1.37% to 1.80%
Q2: raised from 1.53% to 1.94%
Q3: raised from 2.40% to 2.79%
In the last quarter, the industrial sector grew sharply by 19.95 per cent, largely due to an extraordinary 121 per cent surge in electricity, gas and water output, helped by subsidies and a low base effect. The services sector expanded by 3.72 per cent, while agriculture showed only 0.18 per cent growth.
With these revisions, Pakistan’s GDP size is now valued at USD 407.2 billion, and per capita income has increased to USD 1,812, the report added, citing official data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.
Flood warnings apply to ongoing fiscal year
While this revision paints a stronger picture for the past fiscal year (FY2024–25), economic analysts have warned that flood damage during the ongoing year (FY2025–26) could still slow growth ahead.
Earlier reports in The News and Dawn quoted government and multilateral sources cautioning that widespread floods in Sindh, Punjab, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have destroyed crops, roads, and homes, potentially reducing GDP growth by up to one percentage point in the current fiscal cycle.
In late September, Reuters cited Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal saying that the government would reassess its growth targets after damage assessments were completed, and that fiscal adjustments may follow in consultation with the IMF.
This means the upward revision to FY25 reflects past performance, not necessarily a sign that the economy has escaped future risks. Economists have stressed that climate impacts and inflation remain major concerns for FY26.
Broader outlook
The revision offers some short-term relief for policymakers, showing that Pakistan ended FY25 on a firmer note than expected. But with renewed flood losses, high inflation, and energy constraints, sustaining that recovery in the new fiscal year may prove difficult.
Economic experts quoted by local media said the positive revision is encouraging. However, they urged caution: “Pakistan’s economy is stabilising from a low base — the real test is whether this trend can continue amid climate and external challenges.”
