ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s economy showed signs of recovery during the outgoing fiscal year, recording a real GDP growth of 2.68% in Fiscal Year 2024-25, according to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2024-25 released by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb on Monday.
The annual document, published by the Ministry of Finance, presents a cautiously optimistic picture, noting progress in stabilising key macroeconomic indicators, despite persistent challenges in agriculture, manufacturing, and human development sectors.
According to the Economic Survey, the country’s economy posted measurable improvement across key indicators, though challenges remain in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors.
The Economic Survey highlights fiscal discipline, lowering inflation, and a stabilised external account as preparing Pakistan for sustained growth amidst global and domestic challenges.
Key highlights
Agriculture sector
The agriculture sector demonstrated resilience in FY2025, recording a growth of 0.56%, primarily driven by livestock performance.
The sector’s share in GDP declined slightly to 23.54% as compared to 24.03% in FY2024.
Important crops declined by 13.49% due to reduced cultivation area and adverse weather conditions, significantly affecting cotton (-30.7%), wheat (-8.9%), sugarcane (-3.9%), maize (-15.4%), and rice (-1.4%).
Cotton production was recorded at 7.08 million bales, sugarcane at 84.24 million tonnes, wheat at 28.98 million tonnes, and rice at 9.72 million tonnes.
Other crops grew by 4.78%, driven by robust performances in potato (11.5%), onion (15.9%), and mash (4.7%).
Cotton ginning lost momentum, declining by 19.03% compared to the growth of 47.23% in the previous year.
The livestock sector, contributing 63.60% to agriculture and 14.97% to Pakistan’s GDP, grew by 4.72% in FY2025, up from 4.38% the previous year.
The forestry sector recorded growth of 3.03%, maintaining a steady contribution of 2.31% to agriculture and 0.54% to GDP.
The fisheries sector grew by 1.42%, improving from 0.81% last year, with a sectoral share of 1.31% in agriculture and 0.31% in GDP.
Growth and investment
Pakistan’s Real GDP recorded growth of 2.68% in FY2025, underpinned by broad-based stabilization across key macroeconomic indicators.
The country’s industrial sector posted 4.77% growth driven by manufacturing recovery, while the services sector expanded 2.91%, maintaining its position as the largest GDP contributor with a 58.40% share.
GDP at current market prices increased to Rs114,692 billion, reflecting a 9.1% increase from the previous year’s Rs105,143 billion.
The investment-to-GDP ratio reached 13.8% compared to 13.1% in FY2024, while the saving-to-GDP ratio increased to 14.1% from 12.6% last year.
Fiscal Performance
The fiscal deficit narrowed to 6.5% of GDP from 7.4% last year. Revenue collection grew 29% to Rs10.8 trillion, with tax revenue increasing 38%.
Current expenditures rose 26% due to higher interest payments.
Monetary situation
Pakistan’s inflation declined sharply to a record low of 0.3% in April 2025, down from 17.3% in April 2024.
The average CPI inflation for July-April was 4.7%, marking a significant decrease from 26.0% in the same period last year.
The State Bank of Pakistan cut policy rates by 450 basis points to 17.5% since July 2024. Broad money supply grew 13.7%.
External sector
Pakistan’s per capita income reached $1,824, up from $1,662 in the previous year, showing a 9.7% increase supported by improved economic activity and a stable exchange rate.
The current account recorded a $1.2 billion surplus (0.3% of GDP), while remittances grew 11% to $32 billion.
The country’s foreign reserves reached $14.3 billion, covering 3.6 months of imports.
Health and education
Pakistan’s health sector showed modest improvements in FY2024- 25, with infant mortality declining to 52 per 1,000 live births from 56 last year, though national health expenditures remained at just 1.4% of GDP.
The education sector saw literacy rates rise to 62.8%, while primary school enrollment reached 28.6 million children, yet education spending stayed at 2.1% of GDP, below regional benchmarks.
Technology and infrastructure
The IT sector emerged as a bright spot, with exports surging 32% to $3.5 billion and digital banking transactions growing 89% to Rs12.7 trillion, as mobile broadband penetration reached 57% of the population.
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Transport infrastructure expanded with road networks growing to 284,772 kilometres and aviation passenger traffic jumping 24%, though rural connectivity gaps persist.
Demographics and labour
Pakistan’s population growth slowed slightly to 2.4%, with urban residents now comprising 40.1% of the country’s 241.5 million people, while labour force participation remained stagnant at 37.2%, with significant gender disparities.
Debt and capital markets
Pakistan’s public debt stood at Rs67.8 trillion (74.1% of GDP) by March 2025, marking a 2.3 percentage point decline from last year’s 76.4% debt-to-GDP ratio.
Domestic debt comprised 61% of the total at Rs41.4 trillion, while external debt accounted for Rs26.4 trillion.
The country’s capital market demonstrated robust growth with market capitalization at the Pakistan Stock Exchange surging 50% to Rs10.2 trillion, while the benchmark KSE-100 index gained 78,000 points during FY2025.
Corporate bond issuance increased 38% year-on-year to Rs480 billion.
Manufacturing and mining
Manufacturing output showed mixed results, with the industrial sector posting 4.77% growth driven by a recovery in manufacturing.
Small-scale manufacturing and slaughtering helped offset contractions in large-scale manufacturing (LSM).
The auto sector rebounded strongly with 42% production growth, while cement output declined by 7.2%.
The mining sector grew 2.1%, with coal production increasing 12% to 10.4 million tonnes.
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However, mineral exports fell 9% to $682 million due to global price fluctuations. Chromite production dropped 18% while rock salt output grew 5%.
Climate-related initiatives
The survey also reported on climate-related initiatives. Pakistan secured $1.4 billion under the IMF’s Resilience and Sustainability Facility and launched a Carbon Market Policy during COP29 to support green economic transitions.
Federal budget FY25-26
Pakistan is set to announce federal budget for FY2025-26 on Tuesday. The survey sets the tone for policy priorities ahead, particularly in education, health, and investment.
“Our digital transformation is accelerating, but human development needs matching investment,” Finance Minister Aurangzeb said at the survey’s launch.
