ISLAMABAD: England’s dramatic four-wicket win over New Zealand at the R Premadasa Stadium on Friday has breathed new life into Pakistan’s T20 World Cup campaign, setting up a virtual knockout clash against Sri Lanka in Pallekele on Saturday.
The mathematical equation for the Men in Green is now straightforward: beat Sri Lanka by a significant margin to overhaul New Zealand’s net run rate and claim the second semi-final spot from Group 2.
Group 2 Standings After England’s Win
Following England’s thrilling last-over triumph, the Group 2 points table has taken final shape ahead of Saturday’s decisive encounter:
| Position | Team | Matches | Won | Lost | NR | Points | Net Run Rate |
| 1 | England (Qualified) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | +1.096 |
| 2 | New Zealand | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1.390 |
| 3 | Pakistan | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -0.461 |
| 4 | Sri Lanka (Eliminated) | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2.800 |
What Pakistan need to qualify
With England already through to the semi-finals as group winners, the second qualifying spot will be contested between New Zealand (3 points, +1.390 NRR) and Pakistan (1 point, -0.461 NRR). Pakistan must defeat Sri Lanka in tomorrow’s final Super Eight match to reach three points, but the margin of victory will be crucial.
If Pakistan bat first
Should Pakistan set a target, they need to win by approximately 64 runs to surpass New Zealand’s net run rate. Based on a par score of 160, this would require restricting Sri Lanka to around 96 or fewer runs.
If Pakistan bowl first
In case Pakistan field first, they must chase down the target within 13.1 overs to achieve the necessary NRR boost. Any victory that takes longer, regardless of wickets remaining, would leave New Zealand ahead on the tiebreaker.
The consequence of falling short
If Pakistan fails to meet the required margin or loses to Sri Lanka, New Zealand will progress to the semi-finals alongside England. In that scenario, the first semi-final will be held at Kolkata’s Eden Gardens, while the second semi-final is scheduled for Mumbai’s Wankhede Stadium.
Sri Lanka eye spoiler role
Already eliminated after back-to-back defeats, Sri Lanka now find themselves in the position of potential party-spoilers. The co-hosts will be determined to end their campaign on a winning note by denying Pakistan qualification, adding significant intrigue to tomorrow’s contest in Pallekele.
Decisive day awaits in Pallekele
All attention now shifts to the Pallekele International Cricket Stadium, where Pakistan and Sri Lanka will clash in what promises to be a high-stakes encounter. The outcome will determine not only Pakistan’s fate but also the venue arrangements for the first semi-final.
For Pakistan, the mission is clear: secure a comprehensive victory or face elimination. For New Zealand, it becomes a nervous waiting game to see if their commanding net run rate proves sufficient to carry them through to the knockout stage.
