Key points
- PMD forecasts heavy monsoon rains from August 29
- Sutlej, Chenab, and Ravi rivers expected to reach flood levels within 36–48 hours
- Nearly 150,000 people evacuated from vulnerable districts
- India’s water release and glacier melt compound flood risks
ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) on Tuesday has forecasted a fresh spell of heavy to very heavy monsoon rains beginning August 29- a weather event that may bring not just downpours, but danger.
According to the latest advisory, the relentless rains, when combined with significant water releases from Indian dams, are expected to trigger exceptionally high flood levels in several of Pakistan’s major rivers. The Sutlej River at Ganda Singh Wala and downstream is projected to reach an “exceptionally high” flood stage within the next 48 hours.
Similarly, the Chenab River at Marala, Khanki, and Qadirabad is likely to swell to high or very high flood levels in the next 36 hours, posing a serious risk to nearby settlements and farmlands.
The situation is equally precarious along the Ravi River, particularly at Jassar, Shahdara, Balloki, and downstream areas, with flood intensity hinging on further water discharges from Indian reservoirs.
Emergency services
The PMD has warned of high to very high flood flows in the nullahs (seasonal streams) feeding both Ravi and Chenab rivers within the next two days.
Emergency services have been advised to remain on high alert, while residents in vulnerable areas are urged to take precautionary measures as the threat of flash floods and river overflow looms large.
Meanwhile, nearly 150,000 people have been evacuated from flood-prone regions across Punjab as authorities brace for intense monsoon rains and rising river levels, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) confirmed on Tuesday.
The mass relocation comes in the wake of a devastating monsoon season, characterised by record-breaking rainfall, accelerated glacier melt, and widespread flooding – all underscoring Pakistan’s growing vulnerability to climate change.
Evacuations
The evacuations follow early warnings and alerts issued by the NDMA and the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), forecasting “high to extremely high flood” conditions in key rivers, particularly the Sutlej, Chenab, and Ravi.
In response, the Punjab Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) launched large-scale evacuation operations in vulnerable districts, especially after the Sutlej River began swelling dangerously. The river’s flow at one point surged to 195,000 cusecs, prompting an “extremely high flood” warning.
“Emergency response teams have been deployed and all departments placed on high alert to protect lives and property.” The evacuations include:
- 89,868 people from Bahawalnagar
- 14,140 from Kasur
- 2,063 from Okara
- 873 from Pakpattan
- 361 from Bahawalpur
- 165 from Vehari
Additionally, over 40,000 people had already moved to safer locations shortly after the first alerts were issued.
On Monday, Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz directed authorities to expedite evacuations from low-lying areas and riverbanks, while the Ministry of Climate Change forecast heavy rains in Gujranwala, Gujrat, and Lahore divisions, warning of both riverine and urban flooding.
India’s release of water
Meanwhile, India’s release of water into eastern rivers further heightened the risk, leading to the evacuation of over 24,000 people from low-lying areas near the Indus, Chenab, Ravi, and Sutlej rivers since Saturday, according to Rescue 1122 spokesperson Farooq Ahmad.
With rainfall expected to intensify in the coming days, the PMD has warned of a sharp rise in flood intensity, especially in the Ravi and Chenab rivers. The PDMA has urged all district administrations to remain on “high alert,” calling for heightened preparedness and swift disaster mitigation efforts.
Authorities are also urging citizens to heed official advisories, avoid unnecessary travel through flood-prone areas, and cooperate with emergency personnel to ensure safety as the province faces a critical period of environmental risk.
