ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) on Wednesday forecast a significant increase in monsoon activity across the country starting from the evening of 5 July, with widespread rain, thunderstorms, and the potential for flash floods and urban flooding in several regions.
According to an alert issued by the Emergency Operations Centre at the Met Office, a westerly wave is expected to approach the upper parts of Pakistan on 6 July.
It said that under the influence of this system and the intensifying monsoon conditions, rainfall along with wind and thunderstorms—with scattered heavy and at times very heavy downpours—is likely in Kashmir and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa from 5 to 10 July, and in Gilgit-Baltistan from 6 to 10 July, with occasional gaps.
Rain with wind or thundershowers and scattered heavy falls is also forecast for Punjab and the Islamabad Capital Territory between 5 and 10 July, again with occasional gaps.
In southern Punjab, districts including Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, D.G. Khan, Multan, Khanewal, Lodhran, Muzaffargarh, Rajanpur, Rahim Yar Khan, and Layyah are expected to receive rainfall from 6 to 8 July.
Rain is also predicted in the northeastern and southern parts of Balochistan on 3–4 July and again from 6 to 8 July.
In Sindh, light to moderate rain accompanied by strong winds is likely in Tharparkar, Mirpur Khas, Sanghar, Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Khairpur, Hyderabad, Thatta, Badin, and Karachi on 3 and 4 July. Isolated heavy rainfall is also expected in parts of southeastern and lower Sindh.
It warned that heavy rainfall, strong winds, and lightning may damage weak structures such as roofs and walls of mud houses, electric poles, billboards, vehicles, and solar panels during the forecast period.
The PMD advised the farmers to manage their agricultural activities keeping in view the weather forecast.
Public, travellers, and tourists are strongly advised to avoid unnecessary exposure in vulnerable areas and stay updated on weather developments to prevent any untoward situations.
All concerned authorities have been advised to remain on high alert and take precautionary measures to mitigate any potential risks.
Earlier today, Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) issued a fresh alert for flash floods and glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) events amid severe weather conditions, as heavy monsoon rains killed 64 people across the country over the past week.
Climate change effects
Pakistan is one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change, and its 255 million residents are facing extreme weather events with increasing frequency.
The country is facing increasingly frequent and intense weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, and torrential rains.
According to the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), Pakistan contributes less than 1 percent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions, which is insignificant when compared to developed nations.
In 2022, a combination of heavy monsoon rains and glacial melt caused catastrophic floods that killed more than 1,700 people and caused damage estimated at over $33 billion.
