KEY POINTS
- CPI inflation reaches 5.6% YoY in September, above projected 3.5–4.5% range
- MoM inflation climbs 2% versus 0.6% decline last month
- Urban inflation at 5.5%, rural inflation at 5.8% YoY
- Finance Ministry cites flood-related disruptions for price pressures
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s headline inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), clocked in at 5.6% year-on-year (YoY) in September 2025, significantly higher than the Finance Ministry’s projection of 3.5–4.5%, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Wednesday.
The September reading compares with 3% in August 2025 and 6.9% in September 2024. On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, CPI rose by 2% in September, reversing the 0.6% decline recorded in August and the 0.5% decline in September 2024.
According to PBS, urban CPI inflation increased by 5.5% YoY in September against 3.4% in August and 9.3% in the same month last year. On a MoM basis, urban prices rose 1.5%.
Rural CPI inflation stood at 5.8% YoY compared to 2.4% in August and 3.6% in September 2024, while MoM rural inflation surged 2.8%.
In its monthly economic outlook issued earlier, the Finance Ministry had projected the CPI for September in the range of 3.5–4.5%, attributing temporary price pressures to flood-related supply chain disruptions.
The ministry noted that heavy flooding during the extended monsoon season, which intensified through September and severely affected Punjab, was expected to elevate inflation but remain “contained” within its forecast range.
The stronger-than-expected increase has added pressure on policymakers who had anticipated relatively subdued inflation dynamics following the easing trend earlier this year.
Analysts told Business Recorder that higher food and transport costs in flood-hit areas may have driven the September spike.
