KEY POINTS
- Pakistan has received 40% less rain in its thirty-year history
- The major rainfall deficits were observed in Sindh (-62%), Balochistan (-52%) and Punjab (-38%)
- Two-thirds of the country’s agricultural land and 80% of its arid and semi-arid areas are vulnerable to Desertification and Degradation of Land and Ecosystems (DDLD)
- Urban areas to suffer heat surge as glacier melt accelerates
- Critical water shortfalls loom at the Tarbela and Mangla dams
- Experts urge government to expand and accelerate large-scale afforestation and sustainable land management projects to safeguard Pakistan’s environment
- Experts urge to tackle water crisis with sustainable solutions for communities
- They advocate for aggressive water conservation and innovative recycling strategies
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is facing a severe drought, with rainfall levels from September 2024 to March 2025 plummeting by 42%, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD).
Experts warn that the country is on the brink of a water crisis, urging immediate action to implement water conservation strategies and reassess water management practices to protect agriculture.
To combat the impending drought, they advocate for robust water conservation strategies across both urban industrial and municipal sectors and reassessing future water diversion programs to ensure sustainability and agricultural landscapes.
They recommend fostering incentives for water recycling initiatives within.
Talking to WE News English, former chairman of the Higher Education Commission (HEC) and climate change issues expert, Dr Tariq Banuri said that as the PMD has warned that the drought situation may exacerbate and intensify this summer, drastic measures need to be taken.
He emphasized the urgency of implementing robust water conservation strategies as a looming drought approach, advocating for proactive measures across urban industries and municipal sectors.
Dr. Banuri urged a reassessment of future water diversion initiatives to ensure sustainability and safeguard agricultural territories.
He suggested fostering incentives for groundbreaking water recycling projects within these initiatives.
Pakistan Chief Meteorologist Muhammad Afzal revealed concerning news about Pakistan’s weather patterns this year.
“From September 1, 2024, to March 26, 2025, we have witnessed a staggering 42 percent drop in rainfall, plunging us into a state of drought,” he said.
He detailed the regional disparities in rainfall, noting that Sindh experienced a dramatic 63 percent reduction compared to usual levels, while both Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa saw a decline of 41 percent.
Challenges
With an alert now in place regarding the drought, Afzal warned of impending challenges for agriculture due to diminished water supplies, which could adversely affect crop yields and wildlife. He also highlighted the potential health risks associated with the ongoing water shortages.
As we approach the days of Eid, he indicated that hot and arid conditions are expected to prevail, with temperatures in the plains likely rising by two to three degrees.
This trend of elevated daytime heat is anticipated to continue across the nation in the months to come.
Afzal underscored that urban areas will bear the brunt of the heat while rising temperatures could lead to accelerated glacier melt.
Furthermore, he pointed out a critical shortfall in water reserves at the Tarbela and Mangla dams, exacerbating the already dire situation.
Drought like situation
The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) issued a drought alert for Sindh, Balochistan, and Punjab as the country’s rainfall dropped by up to 63 percent.
Overall, below-normal rainfall (-42%) is observed across Pakistan from Sept 2024 till March 2025. The alert is the continuation of the drought advisory issued earlier in January, 2025 in Pakistan.
Despite recent rain spells that alleviated drought conditions in the central and northern parts of the country, drought conditions are expected to persist in Sindh, southern Balochistan, and the lower eastern plains of Punjab.
The PMD stated that the average temperature in the lower half of the country was 2-3 degrees Celsius more than normal during the current month.
Some areas in the southern region experienced consecutive dry days exceeding 200, intensifying the drought further.
Water shortage & rising temperatures
According to the PMD, there is an acute shortage of stored water in the Tarbela and Mangla dams and water in different rivers is flowing at extremely low levels.
The mean temperature during March 2025 in the lower half of the country is 2-3 C above normal. The consecutive dry days in some of the southern parts have even exceeded 200 days.
It added that the recent rainfall spells in the country have improved drought conditions in central and upper parts of the country but drought conditions are still continued in Sindh, southern parts of Balochistan and lower eastern plain areas of Punjab.
Overall, below normal rainfall (-40%) is observed across Pakistan from 01st Sept 2024 to 21st March 2025. The major rainfall deficits were observed in Sindh (-62%), Balochistan (-52%) and Punjab (-38%).
Affected areas
Sindh: Moderate drought conditions are expected in Padidan, Shaheed Benazirabad, Dadu, Tharparkar, Umerkot, Khairpur, Hyderabad, Thatta, Badin, and Karachi, while mild drought conditions are predicted for Ghotki, Jacobabad, Larkana, Sukkur, Khairpur, and Sanghar.
Balochistan: Moderate drought conditions are anticipated in Gwadar, Kech, Lasbela, Panjgur, and Awaran, with mild conditions expected in Chagai, Jaffarabad, Jhal Magsi, Sibbi, Nushki, and Washuk.
Punjab: The southern areas of Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur, and Rahim Yar Khan are likely to be the most affected by mild drought.
The PMD’s National Drought Monitoring & Early Warning Centre (NDMC) is closely monitoring the situation.
Flash droughts, which develop rapidly due to changes in temperature, precipitation, wind, and radiation, are also expected in the coming months due to the rainfall deficit and rising temperatures.
It is important to note here that the overall rainfall from September 1, 2024, to March 21, 2025, was 40% below normal.
The rainfall deficits across the country are as follows: Sindh (-62%), Balochistan (-52%), Punjab (-38%), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (-35%), Azad Jammu and Kashmir (-29%), and Gilgit-Baltistan (-2%).
Abdul Daud, director, of the Meteorological Department, said that due to the effects of climate change, the rain cycle is being affected across the country, due to which the rains that occurred at the beginning of winter have not yet occurred, whereas the rain cycle that occurred in the past has now changed.
In the last three to four years, the winter rains used to start at the end of December. In 2024, the rain cycle changed and the first winter rains occurred in January, while this year the rains have not yet started.
Rashid Bilal further said that the country has received 40 percent less rain in its thirty-year history.
According to the Global Climate Change Index, Pakistan ranks 31st among the countries affected by the effects of climate change.
Due to the effects of climate change, where temperatures are increasing, most areas of Pakistan, including Islamabad, are waiting for rain this winter.
Pre-emptive measure
The PMD has advised all stakeholders to take pre-emptive measures for drought-prone areas. Farmers/ agriculturists are advised to keep themselves updated on the PMD website.
Meanwhile, the Met Office has predicted rain-wind/thunderstorms (with few hailstorms/snowfall over high mountains) till 27th March.
In its latest forecast, it has predicted that a strong westerly wave is likely to approach the western/upper parts of the country and affect upper and central parts till 27th March.
According to the forecast, wind-dust storms/hailstorms and lightning may damage loose structures like electric poles, trees, vehicles and solar panels etc.
Moderate to few heavy rainfalls may cause landslides/slippery conditions on the roads in Murree, Galliyat, Naran, Kaghan, Chitral, Dir, Swat, Kohistan, Mansehra, Abbottabad, Shangla, Astore, Hunza, Skardu, Neelum valley, Bagh, Poonch, Haveli during the forecast period.
Heavy rain may generate flash floods in Chitral, Dir, Swat, Kohistan, and Mansehra on the 26th & 27th of March. Tourists are advised to remain extra cautious and avoid unnecessary travelling during the forecast period.
Windstorms/hailstorms may be destructive for the standing crops over the plains of Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa.
Pakistan stands as the world’s fourth-largest consumer of water, with its agricultural domain guzzling more fresh water than any other sector.
Over recent decades, rainfall has steadily ebbed, and experts have been sounding alarms about the looming threat of “absolute water scarcity” by 2025.
The latest census in 2023 reveals a population of 241.49 million, boasting a growth rate of 2.55 percent.
This surge has been linked to a worrying decline in per capita water availability, which has been on a downward trajectory for years.
Back in 1947, when Pakistan emerged as a nation, each individual had access to approximately 5,000 cubic meters of water, as reported by the World Bank. Today, that figure has plummeted to a mere 1,000 cubic meters.
With projections indicating that the population may double within the next half-century, climate change experts are raising the alarm.
They emphasize the urgent need for comprehensive interventions addressing a wide array of water-related challenges, from the effects of climate change and hydropower development to transboundary water agreements, agricultural irrigation, and the essential provision of drinking water and sanitation.
