Key points
- La Niña expected to trigger harsh conditions
- Flood-hit areas face worsening humanitarian crisis
- 2 million hectares of crops inundated in Punjab
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is expected to experience one of its coldest winters in decades due to the La Niña climate phenomenon, according to the latest situation report on Pakistan’s monsoon floods compiled by the Intersector Coordination Group and its partners.
The report warns that colder-than-usual winter conditions could further strain the coping capacities of flood-affected households, particularly in the mountainous regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB).
A La Niña event occurs when sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean fall below normal, disrupting global weather patterns.
In its October forecast, the UN-OCHA report states that the continued marginally negative phases of both the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole will influence rainfall across Pakistan. Northern Punjab, KP, Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), and GB are likely to receive below-normal rainfall, while Sindh, Balochistan, and southern Punjab may experience near-normal precipitation.
Potential consequences
The report highlights potential consequences, including disruptions to Kharif crop harvesting, greater risk of dengue outbreaks due to stagnant water, a higher likelihood of glacial lake outburst floods, reduced river inflows affecting irrigation, increased smog and air pollution in plains, and negative impacts on livestock and fodder availability.
It also notes a diminishing humanitarian response capacity, with emergency funds depleted and partners seeking new funding to sustain recovery operations.
A geo-spatial assessment by the FAO found that around 1.2 million hectares of cropland in Punjab were inundated, damaging rice, cotton, and sugarcane fields. The floods also coincided with the crucial Rabi planting window, threatening food security and livelihoods.
Over 229,760 homes remain damaged or destroyed, while stagnant water continues to pose severe health risks, including outbreaks of cholera, diarrhoea, typhoid, malaria, and dengue, further worsening living conditions for affected communities.
