ISLAMABAD: Pakistani authorities have warned of an unprecedentedly high risk of a dengue outbreak in the coming weeks, as monsoon rains and widespread flooding have created conditions ideal for mosquito breeding across much of the South Asian country.
In an advisory issued on Monday, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) said that the dengue threat is likely to intensify from September 20 to early December due to “favourable weather thresholds and flood-related waterlogging.”
The weather department said that dengue fever has become a persistent public health challenge in Pakistan, with major outbreaks regularly reported during the post-monsoon season.
According to PMD’s Dengue Alert-I, scientific data indicates that dengue risk spikes when average temperatures remain between 26°C and 29°C for three to five weeks, relative humidity exceeds 60 percent, and rainfall surpasses 27 millimetres with a lag effect of up to three weeks.
“This year’s prolonged heavy rains, river overflows, and reservoir releases have inundated large parts of Punjab and Sindh, including major urban centres,” the department said, warning that stagnant water in flooded areas has created “highly conducive conditions” for the onset of dengue.
The risk is considered particularly acute in Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad, Faisalabad, Sialkot, Rawalpindi, Peshawar, Sukkur, Hyderabad and Multan, as well as in flood-affected rural areas.
The weather department has urged all stakeholders, including provincial health departments and local administrations, to adopt pre-emptive measures immediately.
It advised national health agencies and dengue control centres to remain on “high alert,” strengthen hospital preparedness, and step up vector-control operations such as fumigation, larvicide spraying and clearing stagnant water.
The department further urged the public to cover water containers, eliminate standing water around homes, and use repellents, nets and coils, particularly in the early morning and late afternoon when mosquitoes are most active.
Similarly, the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) of Punjab also issued a dengue warning, particularly for major cities in the country’s eastern province.
“It is predicted that this season poses an unprecedentedly high risk of a severe dengue outbreak, particularly in Lahore, Faisalabad, Sialkot, Rawalpindi and Multan, as well as in flood-affected areas across Punjab,” the PDMA said in its alert.
PDMA Director General Irfan Ali Kathia appealed to the public to take precautionary measures and urged officials to ensure cleanliness in flood relief camps.
“Take preventive measures to prevent dengue, do not let water accumulate and keep your home clean,” he said in a statement, adding that health agencies had been directed to remain vigilant and deploy sprays and larvicides in affected areas.
Flooding in Punjab since late August has killed at least 104 people, affected more than 4.5 million, and displaced over 2.5 million, according to government figures. Authorities have launched the largest search and rescue operation in the province, with floodwaters now moving south towards Sindh.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has also warned that displaced communities in Punjab are facing heightened epidemic risks, including diarrhoea, typhoid, malaria, dengue and skin infections, due to unsafe drinking water and mosquito infestations in overcrowded shelters.
Pakistan has long struggled with dengue, which is endemic to the country and transmitted year-round by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, with seasonal peaks during and after the monsoon.
Earlier this year, the first dengue-related death was reported in Sindh on 3 June. In the capital Islamabad, health authorities confirmed 11 cases in a single day earlier this month, prompting emergency inspections and spraying operations.
