ISLAMABAD: With Pakistan’s wheat harvest just weeks away, official estimates reveal an increase in the total cultivated area, yet production is expected to decline compared to last year, owing to the unfavourable weather conditions earlier in the season.
Although local as well as international experts believe the latest rains that ended unprecedented drought conditions would have a favourable impact on the standing wheat, the Finance Ministry estimates over 11 per cent decline in total production as compared to previous year and almost 16 per cent down from the government’s target of 33.58 million tonnes.
Experts suggests that the rains in March that were required in abundance cannot make up the moisture deficiency at the early age of crops during January and February that went dry in an unprecedented way due to climate change perhaps.
The federal government, last year, proposed a wheat production target of 33.58 million tonnes from the target area of 10.368 million hectares to attain self-sufficiency. However, the provinces came up with lower targets for production.
Despite the increase in cultivated land, Pakistan’s wheat production for 2025 is projected to decline by approximately 11 per cent, amounting to 27.9 million metric tonnes—lower than the record 31.4 million metric tonnes harvested in 2024.
According to provincial governments’ proposals, the target area for wheat will be 9.263 million hectares with a production of 27.92 million tons.
Official data reveals that the total wheat cultivation area for the 2025 harvest stands at approximately 9.734 million hectares, reflecting a 9 per cent increase from the previous year’s 9.033 million hectares and 0.471 more than provincial governments’ anticipations.
This expansion exceeds the five-year average of 8.932 million hectares, indicating a strong commitment by farmers to wheat production, supported by government incentives and input subsidies. The improved cultivation area also indicates that the absence of government minimum support did not have much of an impact on the farmers’ commitment to wheat cultivation.
Production estimates and weather impact
Despite the increase in cultivated land, Pakistan’s wheat production for 2025 is projected to decline by approximately 11 per cent, amounting to 27.9 million metric tonnes—lower than the record 31.4 million metric tonnes harvested in 2024 and almost the same as provincial governments fixed the target.
The decline is attributed primarily to prolonged drought conditions that persisted through much of the planting season, particularly affecting rain-fed regions, which account for nearly 20 per cent of the total wheat acreage.
Experts suggest that the rains in March that were required in abundance cannot make up the moisture deficiency at the early age of crops during January and February that went dry in an unprecedented way due to climate change perhaps.
Recent rainfall, which arrived in February and early March, has helped alleviate drought conditions and provided much-needed moisture to standing crops. On the other hand, agricultural experts warn that the late rainfall is merely a drop in the bucket compared to the moisture deficit experienced during the crucial early growth stages of the wheat crop.
As a result, overall yield per hectare is expected to be lower than in the previous year. They also warn that unexpected rain in April, just ahead of the harvest period due to climate change may affect the overall production as well as grain quality.
Regional breakdown
The major growing provinces have reported varying conditions:
Punjab, the country’s largest wheat producer, has seen an increase in cultivated land. Nevertheless, earlier dry spells may lead to a reduction in per-hectare yield.
Sindh has faced water shortages in several districts, with farmers relying heavily on canal irrigation to sustain crops.
The improved cultivation area also indicates that the absence of government minimum support did not have much of an impact on the farmers’ commitment to wheat cultivation.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, which have significant portions of rain-fed wheat cultivation, are expected to report below-average yields due to inadequate early-season rainfall.
Market and policy implications
The expected drop in wheat production can affect the country’s food security and may necessitate increased wheat imports to stabilise domestic supplies. The government has already taken measures to ensure smooth procurement and prevent market disruptions.
Additionally, fluctuations in global wheat prices could influence Pakistan’s import strategy in the coming months.
As the harvest season approaches in April, stakeholders—farmers, policymakers, and traders—are closely monitoring weather patterns and market conditions to assess the final yield outcome. While recent rains have offered a silver lining, but the overall wheat production is expected to remain below last year’s levels, underscoring the ongoing challenges posed by climate variability in Pakistan’s agriculture sector.
While recent rains have offered a silver lining, the overall wheat production is expected to remain below last year’s levels, underscoring the ongoing challenges posed by climate variability in Pakistan’s agriculture sector.
Despite well below‑average cumulative precipitation amounts and warmer‑than‑average temperatures between October 2024 and early February 2025, vegetation conditions in the main wheat cropping areas were ranged from average to above average due to sufficient supply of irrigation water, according to the Agriculture Stress Index (ASI map) of Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations.
On the dry weather conditions negatively affected crop emergence and early development in rainfed areas, known locally as barani, which account for about 20 per cent of the total plantings, and in some minor irrigated areas in northern parts of the country due to shortage of irrigation water.
In these areas, FAO’s Agricultural Stress Index (ASI), as of early February 2025, indicated that cropland was affected by drought conditions, suggesting unfavourable yield prospects.
Overall, the 2025 wheat production will depend on the performance of the rainy season until April. Abundant rainfall amounts are needed to support proper crop development and to replenish main reservoirs that will be used for irrigating the 2025 main season crops from May onwards, noted the latest country brief of FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) on Food and Agriculture.
The latest FAO report states that wheat import requirements in the 2024-25 marketing year (April-March) are forecast to be negligible, if compared to the previous five-year average, mostly owing to the record production harvested in 2024. Although the country was traditionally a wheat exporter, unusually large volumes of wheat were imported between 2020-21 and 2023-24, when domestic availability was very tight due to below-average outputs gathered between 2018 and 2020, and stock losses caused by severe floods in 2022.
According to the FAO, domestic prices of wheat flour, the country’s main staple food, declined sharply between March and June 2024 due to the abundant market supply from the record 2024 harvest. Additionally, the Punjab provincial government, which previously purchased wheat from farmers at a minimum support price, decided not to procure wheat from the 2024 harvest, increasing market supply and further driving down prices.
FAO’s Agricultural Stress Index (ASI), as of early February 2025, indicated that cropland was affected by drought conditions, suggesting unfavourable yield prospects.
Then, between August 2024 and February 2025, prices remained stable overall or oscillated slightly. By February 2025, wheat flour prices were 30 to 40 per cent lower than the high levels of a year earlier, when they were underpinned by generally tight market availability.
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics reports that food inflation has been generally declining since mid‑2023, turning into deflation at -3.1 per cent in January 2025, significantly below the 25 per cent in January 2024.
Another piece of good news the FAO experts are giving out is that acute food insecurity declined between April and July 2025. According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, about 10 million people are projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) between April and July 2025, down from the 11 million people during the November 2024 to March 2025 period.
The improvement is attributed to increased household wheat stocks after the record 2024 output, the significant year‑on‑year decline in wheat flour prices, which, together with the start of the 2025 wheat harvest in April 2025, are expected to enhance households’ food access.
