World Institute for North Korea Studies Director Chung Eui-sung (N. Korean defector)
SEOUL, South Korea: Recent developments in North Korea’s alignment with Russia have sparked global concern, especially as North Korea increasingly distances itself from its long-time ally, China. This shift, highlighted by North Korea’s supply of missiles and artillery to Russia and Russia’s corresponding disregard for international sanctions, signifies a significant evolution in their bilateral relationship.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to North Korea after 24 years and the signing of a new treaty between the two nations underscore their growing mutual interests. However, what stands out is North Korea’s apparent strategy of using Russia as a shield to reduce its reliance on China, a move that could have far-reaching consequences for regional dynamics.
China, while not overtly reacting to North Korea’s pro-Russian stance, has subtly started to discipline its unpredictable neighbor.
Beijing has tightened sanctions enforcement, enhanced smuggling controls, and delayed the reopening of the North Korea-China border. Additionally, China has imposed restrictions on the movement of North Koreans within its borders, pressured North Korean workers to return home, and generally adopted a more uncooperative stance. These actions indicate China’s intent to reassert its influence over North Korea and signal its disapproval of Pyongyang’s recent behavior.
One of the most surprising aspects of this situation is North Korea’s strong backlash against China. North Korea has canceled planned sports exchanges with China, tightened controls over Chinese descendants, and halted the use of the Chinese Yuan in markets. Additionally, North Korean state media have significantly reduced their coverage of China, replacing Chinese films on television with Russian ones. Reports suggest that Kim Jong-un has even instructed North Korean diplomats in China to be less concerned about maintaining good relations with Beijing.
This unprecedented shift in North Korea’s attitude toward China appears to be a calculated decision by Kim Jong-un. Disillusioned with China’s cautious approach to supporting North Korea economically, particularly in light of its delicate relationship with the United States, Kim has turned to Russia as an alternative.
He aims to bolster North Korea’s stagnant economy through increased exchanges with Russia and seeks technological support to advance North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities. Beyond these immediate goals, Kim seems to be playing a longer strategic game, using Russia as a conduit to potentially improve relations with the United States.
Kim Jong-un’s strategy appears to be influenced by the upcoming U.S. presidential election, where former President Donald Trump, who narrowly escaped assassination, could potentially return to office.
A Trump victory could reignite the close relationship between Trump and Putin, leading to a new geopolitical dynamic. Kim might be envisioning a trilateral relationship, where he, Trump, and Putin form an alliance based on shared interests as strongmen leaders. Kim seems to believe that only Trump can guarantee the continuation of his regime, and thus, North Korea will likely remain defiant in the face of international criticism over its nuclear weapons, human rights abuses, and missile tests.
However, Kim’s reliance on this strategy could backfire. If the Russia-Ukraine war ends, Russia may prioritize economic cooperation with South Korea, potentially abandoning North Korea, which offers little in return. Additionally, with North Korea distancing itself from China, it risks becoming a secondary concern for the U.S., leaving Pyongyang increasingly isolated. Kim Jong-un’s current strategy, while bold, may ultimately lead to North Korea being disregarded by both China and Russia and neglected by the U.S., further entrenching the country’s isolated status. Kim must recognize the precariousness of his position before it’s too late, as North Korea risks being left vulnerable and without allies in an increasingly hostile world.
