NEW YORK: A new study warns that nearly 60% of all adults worldwide and a third of all children will be overweight or obese by 2050 unless urgent action is taken.
The research, published on Tuesday in The Lancet medical journal, draws on data from 204 countries and projects a dire future for global health, describing the obesity epidemic as one of the most significant health challenges of the century.
The study, led by Emmanuela Gakidou from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), highlights a substantial rise in obesity rates worldwide.
The number of obese and overweight individuals has soared from 929 million in 1990 to 2.6 billion in 2021, and if current trends continue, an estimated 3.8 billion adults — or 60% of the global adult population — will be overweight or obese by 2050.
“The unprecedented global epidemic of overweight and obesity is a profound tragedy and a monumental societal failure,” said Professor Gakidou.
The study reveals that the rise in obesity is not only affecting adults, but also children and adolescents. By 2050, the number of obese young people is expected to increase by 121%, with a significant portion of the world’s children living in North Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, and the Caribbean.
The findings also forecast that a quarter of the global obese population will be over the age of 65 by 2050, putting further strain on health systems worldwide.
Countries like China, India, and the United States will continue to have the highest number of overweight and obese adults, but regions such as sub-Saharan Africa are expected to see the fastest increases.
The analysis warns that without a serious shift in public health policy, these trends will lead to crippling healthcare costs and a surge in obesity-related diseases, including type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular issues, and several forms of cancer.
Researchers also stressed that more recent generations are gaining weight at faster rates, with the risk of developing health complications at younger ages.
While poor diet and sedentary lifestyles are key contributors to the global obesity epidemic, there is ongoing debate about other underlying causes.
Thorkild Sørensen, a researcher at the University of Copenhagen, noted that socially deprived groups show a consistent tendency towards obesity, though the reasons remain unclear.
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The study also points to a lack of sufficient government action to address the issue. Jessica Kerr, co-author of the study, emphasised that stronger political commitment is needed to improve nutrition, physical activity, and living environments.
“Much stronger political commitment is needed to transform diets within sustainable global food systems,” Kerr said.
“We need strategies that improve people’s nutrition, physical activity, and living environments, whether it’s too much processed food or not enough parks.”
The research suggests that more than half of the world’s overweight or obese adults currently live in just eight countries: China, India, the United States, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia, and Egypt.
However, significant rises are also predicted for countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with Nigeria’s obese adult population expected to more than triple from 36.6 million in 2021 to 141 million by 2050.
Governments worldwide have been urged to introduce stronger policies to combat the growing obesity crisis.
The study advocates for the development of targeted interventions tailored to specific populations, focusing on both prevention and treatment strategies.
“The global rise in obesity is a direct result of societal failure,” said Professor Gakidou. “The time to act is now.”
