UTTAR PARDESH, India: Narendra Modi is set to remain India’s prime minister for a historic third term, but with a significantly reduced mandate. His Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost its absolute parliamentary majority, defying exit polls, and now must rely on unstable alliances to form the government.
A critical factor in this outcome was the BJP’s substantial losses in Uttar Pradesh, primarily to the Samajwadi Party.
In the 2019 elections, the BJP secured a dominant 303 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha. However, in the recent elections, the party’s tally dropped to 240. Uttar Pradesh, the most populous state with 80 seats, saw the BJP’s count reduced from 62 to 33, while the opposition INDIA bloc won 43 seats, with the Samajwadi Party capturing 37—a sevenfold increase from the previous election.
The Samajwadi Party, founded in 1992 by Mulayam Singh Yadav, aims to create a socialist society based on equality. Yadav, a prominent figure in the socialist movement of the 1950s, served three terms as Uttar Pradesh’s chief minister and briefly as India’s defence minister. Before his death in October 2022, he passed leadership to his son, Akhilesh Yadav, who delivered Modi a significant political blow.
This election saw the Samajwadi Party become the third-largest parliamentary party, behind the BJP and the Congress party, achieving its best national election performance since 2004. Notably, the party won prestigious seats from the BJP, including Faizabad, where the Ayodhya Ram temple is located. The temple’s construction, on the site of a mosque demolished by a Hindu mob in 1992, has been a central BJP agenda item. Despite its inauguration in a grand ceremony before the election, the BJP did not reap the expected electoral benefits, even in Faizabad.
Apoorvanand, a professor and political analyst at Delhi University, explained that Ayodhya residents were dissatisfied with the BJP due to land acquisitions for infrastructure projects benefiting outsiders more than locals. This dissatisfaction contributed to the BJP’s defeat in Ayodhya and other areas.
Additionally, the Samajwadi Party’s strategy enabled its ally, Congress, to challenge Modi in his Varanasi constituency, significantly reducing his victory margin. In contrast, Rahul Gandhi of Congress won Rae Bareli by a substantial margin, and Akhilesh Yadav triumphed in Kannauj against the BJP.
Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at Wilson Center, noted that Modi’s aura of electoral invincibility has been tarnished. The Samajwadi Party’s success is attributed to its support from Muslims and the Yadav community, as well as its efforts to include non-Yadav OBCs and Dalits. Akhilesh Yadav’s focus on social justice and strategic campaign efforts further strengthened the party’s position.
While Modi will continue as prime minister, the BJP’s weakened mandate and reliance on allies highlight a significant shift in India’s political landscape, driven by the Samajwadi Party’s resurgence in Uttar Pradesh.
