NEW DELHI, India: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is projected to win a decisive majority in India’s election, marking a potential third consecutive term in power. Several exit polls indicate that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will secure well over the 272 seats needed for a majority in India’s 543-seat lower house of parliament. Official results will be released on June 4.
Modi, confident in the exit poll results, declared victory for the BJP-led alliance, attributing their success to their track record, particularly with the poor. “I can say with confidence that the people of India have voted in record numbers to re-elect the NDA government,” Modi stated on social media platform X, criticizing the opposition for lacking a clear vision for the country.
The anticipated victory is expected to positively impact Indian financial markets, which had been volatile due to uncertainty about the election outcome. V K Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services, predicted a market rally, noting that the exit polls have alleviated some election-related anxieties.
India’s economy has shown robust growth, expanding by 8.2% in the fiscal year ending in March. This economic performance, coupled with favorable exit poll predictions, bodes well for investor confidence.
The exit polls, while not infallible, have a history of accurately predicting general election outcomes, as seen in 2014 and 2019. The BJP’s strategy of centering its campaign around Modi appears to have been effective, with Modi’s extensive campaigning and the party’s manifesto titled ‘Modi’s Guarantee’ resonating with voters.
A historic third term for Modi would make him the first prime minister since Jawaharlal Nehru to achieve this milestone. The BJP’s gains in southern India and strong performance in northern Hindi-speaking states underscore Modi’s broad appeal.
Shashi Tharoor, a Congress official, criticized the exit polls as “deeply unscientific” and indicated the party would await the official results.
The anticipated BJP victory poses challenges for the opposition, especially the Indian National Congress. A third consecutive loss could spark calls for an ideological overhaul or leadership change within the party.
A significant win would empower the BJP to implement decisive new policies and elevate Modi’s global stature. This includes promises of increased infrastructure spending, investment in domestic manufacturing, and continuation of popular welfare programs. It also positions the BJP to push through contentious reforms on land and labor.
India’s economy, growing at over 8%, is the fastest among major nations. The central bank forecasts 7% growth for the current financial year, significantly outpacing global growth projections of about 3% for 2024. S&P Global Ratings recently hinted at a possible credit rating upgrade for India, boosting financial markets ahead of its inclusion in JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s emerging market bond index.
Garima Kapoor, an economist at Elara Securities India Ltd., noted that if the results align with exit polls, it would be highly positive for markets, suggesting continuity in policy and focus on macroeconomic stability, reforms, infrastructure creation, and fiscal prudence.
