Key points
- Youth unemployment and voter list issues dominate
- Women voters may decide the outcome
- New party Jan Suraaj targets rising discontent
PATNA, India: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s national alliance faces a challenging regional election in Bihar next month, amid growing frustration over youth unemployment and concerns about voter roll irregularities — issues that could threaten his coalition’s stability.
Bihar, one of India’s poorest yet third most populous states with over 130 million people, has long been politically volatile. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, a frequent power broker who has alternated between supporting Modi and the opposition, is currently a key partner in Modi’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA), reports Reuters.
Any setback in Bihar — part of India’s politically crucial heartland — could undermine the NDA ahead of upcoming elections in Assam, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu. Modi’s alliance currently holds 293 of 543 parliamentary seats, with strong support concentrated mainly in Assam.
An opinion poll by Vote Vibe showed the NDA with only a 1.6-point lead over the opposition Rashtriya Janata Dal–Congress alliance as of October 8. Analysts noted the NDA’s slight advantage stems from welfare schemes such as cash transfers worth over 121 billion rupees ($1.37 billion) to 12.1 million women.
Decisive role
Women voters are expected to play a decisive role, as many men migrate to cities for work. “Women take the decisions because the men are not here,” said activist Nivedita Jha, adding that many trust the opposition’s promises of greater benefits.
Voter list issues have also caused anger. One elderly woman, 85-year-old Jitni Devi, said she was wrongly removed from the rolls and declared dead.
Unemployment remains another key concern. Although the rate among 15–29-year-olds fell to 9.9% in 2023–24 from 30.9% in 2018–19, many young voters still feel left behind.
Prashant Kishor’s new party, Jan Suraaj, hopes to capitalise on this discontent, citing “joblessness, migration, and declining agricultural income” as core issues and claiming “a big dip in Modi’s popularity here.”
