The shadow of the 10 May military defeat by Pakistan—a rival India has long considered weaker—still looms large over the Modi regime, leaving many Indians, particularly Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) supporters, disillusioned and deeply embarrassed.
Voter fatigue sets in
The imaginary castle built by the BJP on anti-Pakistan sentiments collapsed in an unexpected manner. Analysts point to a growing voter fatigue with this rhetoric.
Ajay Darshan Behera—a professor at the Academy of International Studies, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi—observes that the anti-Pakistan narrative has lost its appeal as people are now more concerned with pressing domestic issues like unemployment and inflation. “After 10 years of the BJP rule, they have realised the false promises made by the BJP.”
Likewise, Bharat Bhushan—a senior journalist and columnist—says, “People don’t care anymore. The Prime Minister does this again and again to ginger up his base. It is only the hardcore BJP supporters [who] want to hear this; it’s for them.”
Retaliation and repercussions
The BJP has visibly lost ground in the popularity contest, particularly following Pakistan’s robust retaliatory response. Indian media’s targeted propaganda misled the masses and created a sense of victory over Pakistan—one that never materialised. In the aftermath, Pakistan’s firm and calculated response to unwarranted missile and drone strikes further underscored India’s military setbacks.
However, the post-Pahalgam setback proved even more damaging for Modi’s political standing. As Al-Jazeera reported, the attack in Pahalgam exposed serious security lapses and triggered widespread criticism of the Modi government’s handling of the Kashmir situation. Modi’s abrupt suspension of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) was widely perceived as a last-ditch effort to regain political ground—an action that drew sharp criticism both domestically and internationally, the report added.
These developments not only laid bare the hollowness of the BJP’s aggressive posturing but also eroded its political capital at home. As Pakistan’s leading news channel GEO News aptly reported, “The worst shock came in Uttar Pradesh, where the poster boy of Hindutva politics, Yogi Adityanath, could only win 33 seats, as compared to 62 seats in the 2019 elections.”
The shattered invincibility myth
The cumulative impact of these political and military failures is clearly reflected in the broader erosion of India’s global standing and internal cohesion.
First, the myth of Indian invincibility has been shattered. In the wake of India’s immature conduct during the recent conflict with Pakistan, the BJP government is no longer being taken seriously on the global stage. This shift is evident in the response of key international actors—US State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce, during press briefings, and US Vice President JD Vance, in an interview with the Fox News, both endorsed the Pakistan’s proposal for a neutral investigation into the Pahalgam incident.
Second, long-relied-on cross-border terrorism narrative against Pakistan has lost its effectiveness. The Pahalgam attack, which claimed the lives of Indian tourists, exposed serious security gaps and lent further credibility to theories suggesting false flag operation.
Third, the opposition parties in India are holding Modi-led BJP government responsible for the country’s declining regional influence—blaming it on a strategy built on false flag narratives, misinformation, and politically-motivated agendas.
Rahul Gandhi criticised the Modi government, stating, “Eleven years of Modi government, no accountability, no change, only propaganda. The government has stopped talking about 2025 and is now selling dreams of 2047. Who will see what the country is facing today?”
In a parliamentary speech, he further added: “Modi strategically failed the nation with operation Sindoor as Pakistan and China are getting more closer to each other which India never wanted.”
Mallikarjun Kharge—president of the Indian National Congress and the Leader of Opposition in Rajya Sabha—echoed this sentiment: “In the last 11 years, the Modi government has caused severe damage to the Indian democracy, economy, and social fabric.”
Fourth, despite initiating military strikes at times of its own choosing, the Indian armed forces have come under scrutiny for operational incompetence and lack of preparedness—an exposure far more damaging than anticipated. The Indian Air Force’s failure has even brought embarrassment to French defence manufacturer Dassault, with its Rafale jets becoming a subject of ridicule in global defence circles.
In contrast, Pakistan’s armed forces have garnered increased recognition as a highly efficient, professional and battle-hardened force in the region. Prominent Indian defence analyst Pravin Swahney has repeatedly highlighted the professional superiority of Pakistan’s armed forces over India’s—both in his articles for The Wire and across various podcast appearances and interviews on Indian television channels.
Lies, denials & contradictions
Compounding the damage, the Modi government’s response has been marked by contradictions, denials, and a heavy reliance on state-driven propaganda.
From the outset, India’s narrative on the Pahalgam attack failed to gain traction with the international community. The government’s swift accusations against Pakistan—issued without presenting credible evidence—were undermined by glaring security lapses in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu & Kashmir. These missteps played a central role in the collapse of India’s diplomatic narrative. Further blunders, such as unilateral suspension of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) and poorly-calculated missile strikes, only served to highlight India’s strategic immaturity. In contrast, Pakistan’s calculated and measured response effectively neutralised Indian aggression without escalating the conflict into full-scale war.
Meanwhile, the Modi government’s credibility took a serious hit due to the widespread dissemination of state-sponsored propaganda through Indian media outlets. Denials of military losses—especially regarding the downing of Rafale jets, the failure of early warning systems, and the ineffectiveness of the much-touted Russian S-400 air defence system—have severely damaged India’s image.
Adding insult to injury, intermittent confessions of military setbacks by insiders are now compounding the embarrassment on a daily basis. Recent critical remarks by Deputy Army Chief Lieutenant General Rahul Singh regarding Operation Sindoor fiasco have further exposed the BJP leadership’s shortsightedness and lack of strategic maturity. As reported by The Wire; Lt Gen Singh noted that while some indigenous systems performed well during Operation Sindoor, others revealed significant shortcomings.
He also pointed to supply chain vulnerabilities, noting that critical equipment—originally scheduled for delivery by January and again for October–November—was unavailable during the operation.
Diplomatic front falters
Amid these revelations, saner voices within India are increasingly alarmed at the country’s declining stature on prominent international platforms such as Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD). This growing concern underscores broader anxiety about India’s strategic direction under the Modi government.
India’s internal weaknesses have inevitably seeped into India’s diplomatic engagements, where the BJP regime has suffered repeated setbacks on multilateral forums. In an attempt to save face, the BJP government dispatched an all-party delegation to over 30 countries—the United States, United Kingdom and European Union member states, and key partners in West Asia, Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America. However, these efforts bore little fruit, if any.
Ironically, while senior congress leader and seasoned diplomat Shashi Tharoor—renowned for his Oxford education and eloquence—was at the forefront of this campaign, attempting to project a narrative of Indian strength abroad, his presence could not mask the BJP government’s diplomatic missteps.
On the other hand, Indian National Congress leader Rahul Gandhi openly criticised the Modi administration at home, particularly for its strategic failure in Operation Sindoor. This stark contrast between domestic criticism and international outreach revealed deep inconsistencies within India’s political messaging.
India faced particular humiliation at the SCO summit on June 26, 2025 in China, where India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh walked out of the signing ceremony. He accused the SCO of issuing a ‘pro-Pakistan’ declaration after the forum refused to endorse India’s narrative around the Pahalgam incident. Similar embarrassment followed at the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue forum, where India failed to secure any statement condemning Pakistan.
Further compounding these failures, the Permanent Court of Arbitration recently issued a ruling in an old case, effectively rejecting India’s unilateral suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty. This legal blow was accompanied by another diplomatic setback as the ceasefire talk by US President Donald Trump also backfired on the Modi government.
Oddly enough, India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar remained conspicuously absent during the critical phases of the conflict and failed to offer a coherent explanation for India’s actions in high-stakes international media engagements. His vague and inconsistent responses—particularly during a press briefing in Berlin about Operation Sindoor—drew sharp criticism and highlighted the Modi government’s inability to effectively manage post-defeat diplomacy.
Future aggression blueprint
Despite the serious setbacks, the BJP-led government shows no signs of restraint. On the contrary, it may double down on its aggressive posturing in a bid to regain lost political capital. Pakistan must remain vigilant against potential escalatory moves from hawkish BJP regime, which may attempt to avenge its defeats through the following strategies:
First, the intensification of cross-border terrorism in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces. India-funded insurgent groups—Fitna al-Khawarij and Fitna al-Hindustan—are reportedly engaged to perpetuate terrorism, with the dual aim of destabilising Pakistan internally, and diverting global attention from the state-sponsored human rights violations in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir.
Second, acceleration of the regional arms race to assert Indian dominance. Following the Pahalgam incident, India received a fresh consignment of Russian Igla-S air defence system worth over $29.75 million. In addition, Israel has finalised a $1.1 billion deal to supply India with three advanced airborne early-warning aircraft, as reported by the Arms Control Association. India continues to rank among the top 10 global arms importers, according to the Stockholm International Institute’s annual report.
Third, diplomatic offensives aimed at discrediting Pakistan on issues related to terrorism, its nuclear programme, human rights, and national stability. These international campaigns aim to isolate Pakistan and deflect scrutiny from India’s own internal crises and foreign policy missteps.
Fourth, a potential military misadventure through another false flag operation. Such a move could be designed to play to the gallery— portraying the Modi-led BJP as a strong and decisive force, both conqueror and saviour—to regain the lost political popularity.
