The fears of escalation of war in the Middle East remain real. Israel’s Western partners have failed to convince it to act rationally and refrain from escalating the Gaza war into an all-out regional war. Though they are carefully considering escalation dynamics and preparing themselves to face the repercussions of the escalation of war into new dimensions, they seem indifferent due to the likely destruction of the axis of resistance and the decreasing role of Iran in the Middle East. Conversely, the Iranian ruling elite has been striving to endure the functionality of the axis of resistance and demonstrating that it has the courage and capability to challenge Israel and its allies in the region for domestic and international consumption.
Since the Camp David Accords signed by Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin on September 17, 1978, Israel Defense Forces have been fighting with the poorly militarily equipped small resistance groups in the occupied territories. However, Israel’s intelligence agency (Mossad) was involved in various clandestine intelligence operations in the neighboring states, including Iran, and occasionally, its air force did preventive surgical strikes in Iran, Iraq, and Syria. Recently, Israel humiliated Iran by eliminating senior Revolutionary Guard figures in Damascus and assassinating Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and subsequent ongoing mopping-up operations inside Lebanon have intertwined Israel Defense Forces into two-front asymmetrical warfare. Hezbollah and Hamas, despite the decapitation of their senior leaders, have evidenced resilience to continue battling. Besides, Israel has a sporadic exchange of strikes with Yemani Houties and Iran. The quick fixes for Israel are not on the horizon. Opening up multiple fronts precisely promises more casualties for Tel Aviv.
Israel has been struggling to drag Iran into the conflict since the beginning of the Gaza War in October 2023. It is convinced that Iran’s engagement in the war would be bait for the American troops’ involvement in the conflict to obliterate Tehran’s increasing influence in the Middle East and destroy its ballistic missile and latent nuclear capability. Consequently, the axis of resistance would be eliminated, and Israel’s unquestioned hegemony would be established in the Middle East. Realistically, Washington will unlikely launch a major assault on Iran amid election season. It only maintains politico-economic support and military hardware assistance. Moreover, it could increase military presence in the region and will assist in the interception of missiles headed for Israel.
The Iranians rightly judged the United States’ limitations. On October 1, 2024, Iran launched a barrage of over 180 ballistic missiles against Israel. There are conflicting reports about the destruction of the missile strikes. Tel Aviv is giving the impression that, like Iran’s previous attack in April 2024, the recent blitz failed to leave a mark. However, Tehran claimed it achieved its objective by damaging the physical infrastructure of Mossad headquarters, Nevatim Airbase, and Hatzerim Airbase.
Prime Minister Netanyahu vowed to retaliate against Iran to ensure the continuity of the support of his religiously radicalized allies in the parliament. Though the time and intensity of retaliation are unpredictable, it is obvious Israel’s subsequent military gambit will further deteriorate the situation, mainly if it targets Tehran’s nuclear and petrochemical facilities. Iran’s armed forces joint chief of staff, General Mohammad Bagheri, has warned to repeat missile strikes on Israel with “multiplied intensity” if Israel or its top ally, the United States, strikes back against Iranian territory. According to the New York Times, “the Iranian military also prepared hundreds of missiles to launch from western borders against Israel.”
World has failed to stop the genocide of Palestinians
Realizing the rapid deterioration of the situation in the region, UN chief Antonio Guterres, while speaking at an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council after Iran’s massive missile barrage at Israel, said, “This deadly cycle of tit-for-tat violence must stop.” Instead of responding positively, Israel had declared Guterres “persona non grata.” Israel Foreign Minister Katz stated, “Anyone who cannot unequivocally condemn Iran’s heinous attack on Israel does not deserve to step foot on Israeli soil.” Hysterical Netanyahu and his religiously radicalized cohorts have crossed all red lines and are continuously dismissing all ceasefire plans.
Tehran claimed that it successfully struck vital military sites, including Mossad headquarters, Nevatim Airbase, and Hatzerim Airbase. However, it refrained from targeting the people centers and economic and industrial infrastructure of Israel. Still, the missile strikes cause psychological insecurity for Israelis. Even if Israel exercises similar restraints, the conflict could escalate unimaginably. Notably, the war has its dynamics, which could drift fighting actors towards undesirable ambits and unintended collateral damage compromise the control of leaders on the escalators ladder of the battle. Thus, the powder keg could explode in the Middle East due to the inadvertent escalation of the exchange of missile strikes between Iran and Israel.
To conclude, the international community has failed to stop the genocide of Palestinians and Israel’s escalation of war in various directions. Tel Aviv is not in the mood to terminate the war. Thus, the Middle Eastern powder keg is quickly slipping towards burst.
