KEY POINTS
- Mistrust between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban complicates efforts for lasting peace.
- India is leveraging the situation, using the Afghan Taliban as a strategic ally against Pakistan.
- Afghan Taliban must recognize India’s tactical exploitation amid Pakistan’s retaliation.
- Experts suggest that Pakistan may need to adopt stronger measures to address Taliban threats.
- Humanitarian needs in Afghanistan are jeopardized by ongoing conflicts and border tensions.
ISLAMABAD: The ongoing clashes since Saturday night between Pakistan and Afghan Taliban have escalated tensions and raised serious concerns regarding the long-term implications for the two sides and the wider region.
Security experts, interviewed by WE News English, reflected on the evolving regional dynamics, highlighting the complexities of trust, geopolitical strategies, and the potential beneficiaries of ongoing conflicts.
Historical Mistrust and Current Clashes
Dr. Nazir Hussain, an international relations expert and former Dean of Social Sciences at Quaid-i-Azam University, noted that historically, Pakistan and Afghanistan have struggled to develop a reliable trust, with only two regimes managing to establish any semblance of cooperation.
He asserted, “In the current clash, it is evident that Afghanistan’s territory is being used against Pakistan, and Pakistan was compelled to retaliate. Since the Afghan Taliban attacked from three sides, a strong response was necessary.”
Dr. Hussain pointed out that India is leveraging Afghanistan’s Taliban authorities against Pakistan, applying a classic strategy reminiscent of Chanakya Kauṭilya’s principle: “my enemy’s enemy is my friend.”
He emphasised that while countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and China have condemned the Afghan Taliban’s aggressive actions, the need for a robust response from Pakistan was critical.
Strategic Dialogues and Potential Benefits
Maj. Gen. (R) M. Ijaz Hussain Awan discussed the possibility that the ongoing clashes might push Afghans to seek diplomatic dialogue.
“Passage through Pakistan is their lifeline for health, commerce, and education. Pakistan is likely to benefit if the Taliban government starts to control the banned Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP),” he stated. However, he cautioned that India would likely exacerbate the situation by funding anti-Pakistan elements to stir further instability.
The Reality of Taliban Alliances
Prof. Dr. Ilhan Niaz of Quaid-i-Azam University highlighted the stark reality of the Taliban’s behavior, which has not differed from previous regimes.
“The Taliban and India are synergizing, and the two-front threat that Pakistan has long sought to avoid is becoming a reality,” he said.
Dr. Niaz argued that if Pakistan aims to alter Taliban behavior, it must consider more significant actions, such as disrupting terrorists’ critical infrastructure within Afghanistan.
He pointed out that the ultimate beneficiaries of these tensions include India, hardline elements within the Taliban, and various terrorist groups.
Underlying Diplomatic Dynamics
Dr. Munawar Hussain, an assistant professor at the Area Study Centre, Quaid-i-Azam University, emphasized that the current tensions are more about the Taliban government than the Afghan people.
Despite the desire for good relations among the populace, factions within Afghanistan are aligned with India against Pakistan.
Leaked communications following recent meetings between Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi and Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar reveal plans for mutual support against Pakistan, intensifying fears of a two-front conflict.
Humanitarian Consequences and Regional Stability
Prof. Dr. Manzoor Afridi, Dean of Social Sciences at the International Islamic University, underscored that the recent clashes will likely lead to negative repercussions for both Pakistan and Afghanistan.
“Afghanistan is in urgent need of humanitarian assistance and requires open borders, particularly with Pakistan. Clashes like these jeopardize transit trade and further complicate an already delicate situation,” he explained.
He also stressed the human toll, noting that those in border areas are the most affected by ongoing conflicts.
“War brings destruction; it is not beneficial for anyone and yields negative consequences in both the short and long run.”
