Key Points
- Indus at Kotri forecast to remain at medium flood level till month-end
- Punjab rivers return to normal, but major crop and infrastructure losses reported
- Relief and survey teams assessing damage in flood-hit districts
- Weather office says hot, dry conditions to dominate in coming days
ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has declared that the 2025 monsoon has officially ended in most parts of the country, but federal river forecasts show the Indus at Kotri Barrage is likely to remain at a medium flood level until the end of September.
According to the Flood Forecasting Division (FFD) of the PMD in Lahore, all three major Indus barrages at Guddu, Sukkur, and Kotri were in medium flood on Thursday, with inflows continuing to pose a threat to low-lying areas in Sindh. “The River Indus at Kotri is likely to remain in a medium flood level up to the end of this month,” the FFD said in its latest bulletin issued on Friday.
Likewise, the Punjab Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) said rivers in the province had returned to their normal states, noting that the Sutlej at Ganda Singh Wala was in medium flood while flows at Sulemanki and Islam were down to low flood levels. The PDMA added that breaches in canals and damaged segments of the M5 motorway were being repaired.
The National Weather Forecasting Centre (NWFC) in Islamabad said in its weekly outlook that no significant weather events were expected in the coming days. It forecast hot and dry conditions to prevail over flood-affected areas, while warning of isolated rain and thunderstorms in hilly regions of Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan, and parts of upper Punjab that could still trigger local flash floods or landslides.
Relief and rehabilitation officials confirmed that damage assessment surveys were underway across Punjab and Sindh. Initial reports cited by Dawn indicated that more than 1.17 million people had been affected in South Punjab alone, with 1,112 villages inundated and crops over thousands of acres destroyed. Provincial authorities said enumerators were documenting household losses, agricultural damage, and infrastructure disruption to prepare claims for compensation and federal assistance.
The 2025 monsoon was marked by repeated high-flow spells in the Indus and its tributaries, heavy downpours in both plains and hilly regions, and prolonged saturation of river basins. ReliefWeb noted in a situation report that early rains in late June raised base flows in rivers, making subsequent spells more destructive, while embankment breaches and drainage failures exacerbated the impact.
While the emergency phase of the season is ending, officials cautioned that recovery would take weeks if not months. “Medium-level flood persists in the lower Indus, and return, compensation, and repair remain critical priorities,” one federal relief coordinator told Geo News.
This year’s monsoon was unprecedented that starting at least 20 days before its routine timing on June 25 and ending on September 19, at least four days beyond its normal ending of September 15 every year. The monsoon 2025 saw eleven spells as per the PMD with each spell causing massive urban flooding and accentuating river flows. According to the PMD officials, the rains during the outgoing monsoon were 82 per cent more than the previous season and over 50 per cent more than the normal routine. According to the PMD forecast, the next monsoon in 2026 would be 30 per cent more intense than this year. The damage assessment survey is most likely to be completed in a week or so.
