SEOUL, South Korea: In a surprising turn of events, North Korea’s enigmatic leader, Kim Jong Un, embarked on a rare overseas visit to Russia this week, ahead of a scheduled meeting with President Vladimir Putin. The visit has raised concerns in Washington over the possibility of an arms deal between Pyongyang and Moscow, particularly concerning Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine.
Images released by North Korean state media depicted Kim Jong Un wearing a black suit and standing beside uniformed defense officials, as he waved from the doorway of his heavily-armoured private train adorned with a green-and-gold livery. The train departed from Pyongyang station on Sunday evening and subsequently crossed the border into Russia’s Primorsky region, as confirmed by the Russian state news agency Ria Novosti. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov announced that Kim and Putin are set to meet in the Far East later in the week, possibly during the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, a city located closest to the North Korea-Russia border.
While Kim’s visit is significant in itself, experts speculate that the primary focus of the meeting will be on potential exchanges of military and technological assets. Moscow is rumoured to be interested in acquiring artillery shells and antitank missiles from North Korea, while Pyongyang is reportedly seeking advanced satellite and nuclear-powered submarine technology from Russia in return.
Accompanied by high-ranking North Korean military officials, including those responsible for weapons production and space technology, Kim Jong Un received a “warm send-off” complete with a red carpet and an honour guard at Pyongyang station before departing for Russia. Notably, Kim has been a steadfast supporter of Moscow’s Ukraine invasion, with allegations from Washington suggesting that North Korea has been supplying rockets and missiles to aid Russia in its military efforts.
Both Russia and North Korea have vehemently denied these allegations, despite evidence suggesting North Korea’s capabilities in these areas. It’s worth noting that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has significantly depleted its stockpiles of munitions, possibly making North Korean weaponry an attractive option.
Kim Jong Un’s decision to travel to Russia is significant, especially given that he has not left North Korea since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. His last overseas trip was in 2019 when he met with President Putin. The historical ties between Moscow and Pyongyang date back 75 years to North Korea’s founding, and this relationship has played a crucial role in North Korea’s isolation and survival.
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, notes, Given his interest in exploiting ‘new Cold War’ geopolitics and a preference for travelling by train for personal security, it is unsurprising Kim chose Russia as his first post-pandemic destination.” Easley further explains, “North Korea has the crude ammunition that Putin needs for his illegal war in Ukraine, while Moscow has submarine, ballistic, and satellite technologies that could help Pyongyang leapfrog engineering challenges it suffers under economic sanctions.
Even if an arms deal does materialize from the summit, it’s unlikely that either side will make the full details public due to the serious international legal violations involved.
The White House has recently issued a warning to Pyongyang, stating that it would “pay a price” if it supplied Moscow with weaponry for the conflict in Ukraine. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller even described Putin’s decision to seek a meeting with Kim as a sign of desperation.
In addition to concerns over potential arms deals, there is speculation that Russia’s engagement with North Korea may be a form of “gentle diplomatic blackmail” aimed at South Korea. Russia appears to be pressuring Seoul not to supply weapons to Kyiv, given South Korea’s significant arms-export capabilities and prior sales of tanks to Ukraine’s ally, Poland. However, South Korean domestic policy bars it from selling weapons into active conflicts.
Andrei Lankov, a North Korean expert at Kookmin University in Seoul, commented, that the major worry of the Russian government now is a possible shipment of the South Korean ammunition to Ukraine, not just one shipment but a lot of shipments.
As Kim Jong Un’s visit to Russia unfolds, the world watches closely, with concerns over the potential ramifications of any agreements reached during this rare international encounter.
