TUNIS, Tunisia: Tunisia heads to the polls this Sunday for a presidential election that appears firmly in favor of incumbent President Kais Saied.
Analysts predict an easy win for Saied, as his most prominent opposition figures are either jailed or disqualified, creating a heavily one-sided race. The absence of significant opposition has led to a subdued campaign, lacking rallies or debates, and dominated by Saied’s presence in posters and media.
Saied, who gained power in a landslide victory in 2019, has since consolidated his rule. In 2021, he dismissed the Islamist-led parliament and rewrote the constitution the following year, actions critics describe as a power grab. This has led to a tightening of political dissent, with opposition leaders like Rached Ghannouchi of the Ennahdha party and Abir Moussi of the Free Destourian Party imprisoned.
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Higher thresholds for candidate registration and technical disqualifications have further limited competition. Fourteen hopefuls were barred from running, and some were jailed for allegedly forging signatures. Critics argue that these measures were politically motivated, effectively securing Saied’s dominance.
Saied faces only two challengers, one of whom, Zouhair Maghzaoui, supports his 2021 power grab and poses little threat to his rule. The other, Ayachi Zammel, is a liberal party leader who, despite being approved as a candidate, faces a 12-year prison sentence for forging voter endorsements. Analysts say this lack of meaningful competition will likely lead to voter disengagement and low turnout, a concern for Saied, whose previous referendums saw historically low participation.
Ultimately, Saied’s victory seems assured, but the election highlights deep concerns about Tunisia’s political trajectory and shrinking democratic space since the 2011 Arab Spring.
