JERUSALEM: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under huge international pressure to move ahead with a proposed ceasefire and hostage release deal for Gaza but opposition within his hard-right coalition means it might come at a political price.
The urgency for a resolution stems from the recent announcement by US President Joe Biden outlining a framework for the Gaza ceasefire and the release of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. Tens of thousands of Israelis have taken to the streets demanding swift action, underscoring the public’s growing impatience with the ongoing conflict.
However, Netanyahu’s response to the proposed ceasefire conditions has tempered expectations. Despite Biden’s assertions, Netanyahu reiterated his stance, insisting that any truce must include the “elimination” of Hamas.
The far-right factions within Netanyahu’s coalition, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, have threatened to withdraw their support if Netanyahu opts for a ceasefire without achieving his war objectives. With the coalition teetering on a slim majority in the Israeli parliament, their departure could spell political instability for Netanyahu.
Analysts suggest that the fate of Netanyahu’s government hinges on the specifics of the ceasefire deal. While some believe that the far-right may indeed abandon Netanyahu if the terms are not to their liking, others speculate that a minority government could still function without their support.
In the event of a coalition reshuffle, Netanyahu may seek an alliance with centrist parties like Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid, albeit with a limited mandate. Such a move, however, could cast doubts on Netanyahu’s long-term political viability, especially as opposition to his leadership intensifies.
Meanwhile, Defense Minister Benny Gantz’s National Unity Party looms as a potential ally, should early elections be called. Gantz, a former armed forces chief, has faced criticism for his perceived leniency towards Netanyahu but remains a significant player in Israeli politics.
Analysts predict a close race between Netanyahu and Gantz, with the former leveraging security concerns to shore up support. Despite waning popularity, Netanyahu’s narrative of safeguarding Israel’s interests may resonate with voters.
