Israeli Hostage Crisis in Gaza Becomes a Political Trap for Israel’s Netanyahu

Mon Oct 09 2023
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JERUSALEM, Israel: The capture of dozens of Israeli soldiers and civilians, including elderly women and children, by Hamas militants has ignited profound emotions in Israel, posing an unprecedented dilemma for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right government.

Hamas had previously abducted a lone young conscript, Gilad Shalit, back in 2006. Shalit’s captivity captivated Israeli society for an extended period, evolving into a nationwide fixation that led Israel to initiate extensive bombardments of the Gaza Strip. Ultimately, as part of the negotiated deal for Shalit’s release, Israel freed more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, including many who had been convicted of fatal attacks on Israelis.

This time, Hamas, along with the smaller but audacious Palestinian Islamic Jihad, have abducted dozens of Israeli civilians and soldiers as part of a multipronged, shocking attack on Saturday. The hostage situation adds immense pressure on Netanyahu and his hawkish, far-right allies, who are already facing demands to respond to the killing of over 700 Israelis in the Hamas attack.

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Netanyahu’s vow to unleash the full might of the Israeli military on Hamas raises concerns about the safety of Israeli civilians scattered across the densely populated Gaza Strip, their locations undisclosed.

Michael Milstein, a former head of the Palestinian department in Israeli military intelligence, explained, “It will limit the directions and areas that the IDF can be active. It will make things much more complicated.”

Locating Israeli hostages in Gaza, a challenge Israeli intelligence agencies faced during the Shalit case, presents further hurdles. Despite Gaza’s small size, constant aerial surveillance, and its proximity to Tel Aviv, the territory remains somewhat opaque to Israeli intelligence agencies.

Yaakov Amidror, a former national security adviser to Netanyahu, noted, “We don’t know where Israelis are sheltered,” but emphasized that the issue of captured Israelis would not deter Israel from taking action against Hamas until it is eliminated.

Hamas has already demanded the release of all Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails, estimated at around 4,500 detainees, according to Israeli human rights group B’Tselem, in exchange for the Israeli captives.

The fate of prisoners holds significant emotional weight for Palestinians, with an estimated 750,000 Palestinians having passed through Israeli prisons since Israel captured the West Bank in the 1967 Mideast war. Most Palestinians have either spent time in Israeli jail or have close connections to detainees, whom they view as heroes. The Palestinian Authority, which administers parts of the occupied West Bank, allocates approximately 8 percent of its budget to support prisoners and their families.

Despite Hamas‘ demands, Israel’s current government, led by far-right religious ministers, including West Bank settlers, staunchly opposes any actions seen as capitulation to the Palestinians. Gayil Talshir, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, emphasized that there is “absolutely no chance” that the current government would agree to the release of Palestinian prisoners.

In response to the crisis, Israel’s Finance Minister, settler leader Bezalel Smotrich, demanded a brutal response at a Cabinet meeting, stating, “In war you have to be brutal. We need to deal a blow that hasn’t been seen in 50 years and take down Gaza.”

However, the risk of Israeli civilians becoming casualties of relentless Israeli bombardment or languishing in Hamas captivity while Israel gets entangled in an indefinite campaign poses a political threat to Netanyahu.

Ehud Yaari, a veteran Israeli political commentator, highlighted the seriousness of the dilemma, noting the possibility that Hamas might threaten to execute hostages regularly if a ground operation commences.

Israel’s history has shown the extreme sensitivity of public opinion when it comes to hostages, underscoring the potential impact of abduction in a country where 18-year-olds are conscripted for military service, and the army prides itself on never abandoning its own.

Israelis with loved ones among the hostages are urging the government to prioritize their return, setting a precedent for the intense public pressure campaigns that have previously led to disproportionate exchanges, such as the Schalit deal in 2011.

The dilemma facing Netanyahu is challenging, but for Israelis with family members in captivity, the answer is clear: prioritize the return of their loved ones, no matter the cost.”

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