Key points
- PRAL imports underreported by billions annually
- Textile sector accounts for largest gap
ISLAMABAD: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has urged Pakistan to publicly disclose $11 billion worth of discrepancies in trade data reported by two government bodies over the past two fiscal years, raising concerns about the reliability of the country’s external sector statistics.
Imports recorded by Pakistan Revenue Automation Limited (PRAL) were $5.1 billion lower than those reported by Pakistan Single Window (PSW) for the 2023-24 fiscal year, according to The Express Tribune.
This gap widened to $5.7 billion in the following year. PSW’s import figures, which are considered more comprehensive and include all import entries, also exceeded those of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), whose data was used to calculate the last fiscal year’s current account surplus.
Review talks
Pakistani officials briefed the IMF after it initially approached the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) before review talks. Discussions with PBS and the Ministry of Planning and Development followed.
The IMF recommended that Pakistan adopt a clear communication policy to explain discrepancies and methodological changes to prevent mistrust among the government and data users.
Pakistan admitted that the trade data submitted to the International Trade Center (ITC) by PBS was incomplete, with some import figures missing. However, officials said the underreporting was unintentional and due to the transition from PRAL to PSW as the data source.
Consistent underreporting
PRAL operates under the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), while PSW is an independent entity with officers mainly from Customs. PSW covers all import entries, especially trade facilitation schemes, unlike PRAL, which underreports imports of raw materials.
A joint FBR, PBS, PRAL, and PSW team found that PBS’s data was based on a query unchanged since 2017, causing consistent underreporting. The largest discrepancy was in textiles, with nearly $3 billion underreported, and metal imports understated by about $1 billion in 2023-24.
Despite IMF advice, PBS has been hesitant to publish revised data, while Finance Ministry officials worry that releasing it could affect export and economic growth figures.
