ISLAMABAD: India has fueled tensions in South Asia again by inviting tenders for a controversial mega dam in occupied Kashmir in blatant violation of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) that analysts warn could endanger the fragile May ceasefire with Pakistan.
This belligerent move, which is apparently to exploit the unilateral and ultra vires suspension of the IWT that itself was a hastened reaction to the Pahalgam attack, wherein 26 tourists had lost their lives in April.
India had blamed Pakistan for backing the attack, while Islamabad not only denied involvement but also offered a transparent and independent international investigation.
India, which has always been averse to third-party mediation, resorted to aggression and conducted strikes inside Pakistan in early May this year.
Pakistan’s defence and later counterattack proved to be victorious until the ceasefire that US President Donald Trump claimed brokered between the two nuclear neighbours.
Pakistan’s defence minister, Khawaja Asif, is on record warning India that keeping IWT in so-called abeyance, which is not at all provided for in, and also against the spirit of the Treaty, would risk the ceasefire.
The defence minister’s statement is a follow-up on the country’s apex security committee’s declaration that weaponising, in other words, stopping or disrupting water flow to Pakistan, would be tantamount to an act of war.
Reigniting tensions with Pakistan by inviting bids for the construction of its largest hydroelectric project on the Chenab River in the disputed territory of Indian illegally occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) is nothing short of an “act of war,” observed a senior Pakistani official requesting anonymity.
The move has also alerted international quarters that do not want a war between India and Pakistan, with the White House on top of them, the official added.
It is not just drawing sharp criticism from Islamabad and raising fresh concerns over violations of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), some saner voices from within India are also questioning the plausibility of the project.
The 1856-megawatt Sawalkote Hydropower Project, estimated to cost over $2.6 billion, has been reactivated by India’s National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC), according to Indian media reports published on July 30.
The Chenab River, one of the three western rivers allocated to Pakistan under the 1960 World Bank-brokered treaty, is already a source of multiple bilateral disputes.
India used the Pahalgam incident as justification to unilaterally “suspend” the implementation of the Indus Waters Treaty, as stated by Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri.
While the treaty permits India to build run-of-the-river hydropower projects on the western rivers, it obliges New Delhi to notify Pakistan and seek technical clearance to ensure downstream water flows are not adversely affected.
The Sawalkote project, initially proposed in the 1980s and delayed due to Pakistani objections, is now proceeding in two phases.
Four other hydroelectric projects with a combined capacity of 2,026 MW have already been launched in IIOJK since 2019, adding to Pakistan’s apprehensions about India’s intensifying efforts to unilaterally develop river resources in the disputed region.
Recalling how such anxieties around water are rooted in post-Partition tensions, Al Jazeera, in a recent piece, noted that fears of India cutting off river flows date back to the early 1950s.
Seven decades ago, one of South Asia’s greatest fiction writers, Saadat Hasan Manto, penned a short story titled Yazid, set in a Punjab village.
The plot centred around rumours of India shutting down the rivers irrigating Pakistan. A character in the 1951 story scoffs at the idea: “…who can close a river; it’s a river, not a drain.”
However, Pakistan’s current water woes are no fiction, say local experts. Dr Hassan Abbas, a leading hydrologist, said India’s longstanding campaign to throw wastewater into the eastern rivers — Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas — while obstructing flow on the western rivers allocated to Pakistan, has already crippled key agricultural zones in Punjab. “They’re blocking rivers and giving us drains,” he said.
The Chenab River, a lifeline for millions in Pakistan’s Punjab province, is especially vulnerable to upstream disruptions.
The latest move to construct the massive Sawalkote dam without prior consultation is viewed by Islamabad as a blatant violation of international norms.
Pakistan’s Foreign Office has yet to issue an official response to the latest Indian move in blatant violation of the IWT, while relevant officials told WE News English that Islamabad would raise the matter in upcoming multilateral platforms, including the United Nations, the World Bank, and the International Court of Justice, against India.
The Indus Waters Treaty, considered one of the most successful water-sharing agreements in the world, has withstood multiple wars and crises between the two countries.
However, analysts fear that India’s unilateral decisions, combined with its suspension of the treaty, could unravel decades of delicate cooperation.
Pakistan has formally raised its concerns with the World Bank, which facilitated the original agreement. Islamabad had earlier opposed India’s Kishanganga and Ratle projects and sought arbitration, leading to a split mechanism involving both neutral experts and a Court of Arbitration.
Water scarcity in Pakistan is already reaching alarming levels, with per capita availability dropping below 1000 cubic meters. Any upstream interference can have devastating consequences for its agrarian economy.
