ISLAMABAD: As Bihar gears up for the high-stakes Assembly Elections in October–November 2025, early indicators suggest the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is entering the race with a narrow but edge over its chief rival, the Mahagathbandhan (INDIA Bloc).
With 243 seats up for grabs and a 122-seat majority required, the race is shaping up to be far more complex than a two-way contest.
Why Bihar Matters
Bihar is often seen as a political bellwether, influencing national momentum. This year’s election is particularly significant, as it could serve as a prelude to the 2029 Lok Sabha elections. The state’s deeply entrenched caste dynamics, the emergence of new political players, add further layers to an already volatile contest.
Who Has the Edge?
According to the Times Now–JVC opinion poll, the NDA is projected to win 136 seats, giving it a clear path to form the government once again. Within the alliance:
BJP is the big gainer, projected to rise from 74 to 81 seats.
JD(U) under Nitish Kumar may see a decline, dropping from 43 in 2020 to a projected 31 seats.
The Mahagathbandhan, led by Tejashwi Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), is predicted to win 75 seats. The Congress could see its tally halved to just 10 seats, while the Left parties may combine for 13 seats.
Yet, these poll numbers don’t tell the full story.
A Fractured Mandate? New Players Could Change the Game
The rise of independent and new entrants like Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, AIMIM, and Bahujan Samaj Party is adding uncertainty:
The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) is expected to win 3 seats, mainly in the Muslim-majority Seemanchal region.
Jan Suraaj, contesting all 243 seats, could make its debut with 2 seats, appealing to youth and reform-minded voters.
Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) may win a seat, but could play spoiler in several tight races.
26 seats are considered too close to call, with multiple parties in contention.
Caste, Demographics & the Voter Roll Controversy
Caste remains at the core of Bihar politics:
Extremely Backwards Classes (EBCs) make up nearly 36% of the electorate—critical for both major alliances.
Other Backwards Classes (OBCs), Dalits, and Muslims are also key voter groups.
Upper castes continue to lean toward the NDA, particularly the BJP.
However, a shadow looms in the form of the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the electoral rolls. Opposition parties claim the process is disenfranchising marginalised groups. The case is now under the Supreme Court’s scrutiny, and any fallout could directly impact outcomes in close contests.
Public Sentiment: Youth with Tejashwi, Women with Nitish
Youth voters, a significant portion of the electorate, are leaning toward Tejashwi Yadav, attracted by his promises of jobs and reform.
Women voters, especially in rural areas, continue to back Nitish Kumar, credited for programs like bicycle schemes and the Women’s Empowerment Initiatives.
The BJP’s potential promotion of Samrat Choudhary, an OBC face, is seen as a strategic move to consolidate backwards caste votes, especially if Nitish’s appeal weakens further.
Possible Election Scenarios
NDA Majority: If current projections hold, NDA could cross the majority mark, largely due to the BJP’s gains and strategic alliances.
Hung Assembly: Fragmentation caused by new entrants may deny both major blocs a majority, triggering post-poll alliances or horse-trading.
INDIA Bloc Surge: If anti-incumbency and youth enthusiasm translate into votes, and if voter roll issues depress NDA turnout in certain constituencies, the Mahagathbandhan could mount a surprise comeback.
Strengths & Weaknesses: At a Glance
The NDA, led by Nitish Kumar and Samrat Choudhary, banks on a solid voter base comprising EBCs, Mahadalits, and upper castes, bolstered by a long-standing governance record and broad alliance reach. However, the alliance faces internal strains due to JD(U)’s declining numbers and mounting criticism over the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of voter rolls. On the other hand, the INDIA Bloc, led by Tejashwi Yadav, with support from Prashant Kishor and AIMIM, draws strength from its strong connection with the Yadavs,
Muslims, Dalits, and a growing appeal among the youth, riding on anti-incumbency sentiment. Yet, it struggles with coordination issues and a limited footprint beyond its traditional strongholds. While the NDA holds a slight but fragile lead in opinion polls, the INDIA Bloc’s momentum remains confined, making the contest competitive and unpredictable.
The Bihar 2025 elections are not just about choosing a state government; they’re a test of national political strategies, caste coalitions, and the resilience of grassroots democracy in the face of controversy and change.
As opinion polls hint at a fragile edge for the NDA, the outcome will depend on youth turnout, voter roll integrity, and the performance of new political players who may emerge as kingmakers in a deeply divided house.
Implications for Pakistan from the 2025 Bihar Elections
The 2025 Bihar Assembly elections, while a domestic Indian affair, carry strategic and symbolic implications for Pakistan, particularly in the context of regional dynamics, political narratives, and people-to-people perceptions. Bihar, one of India’s most populous and politically active states, often serves as a barometer of national mood, and any significant shift in its political landscape may influence India’s broader political direction, including its approach toward regional diplomacy and internal policy.
International affairs experts in Pakistan believe, if the NDA, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), retains power, it could reinforce New Delhi’s current foreign policy posture, marked by nationalism and assertive regional rhetoric. This may translate into a continued or even hardened stance toward Pakistan, especially ahead of the 2029 general elections, as BJP tends to amplify national security narratives in its electoral messaging. Historical patterns show that election victories in key states like Bihar embolden the BJP’s central leadership, potentially reducing the space for diplomatic thaw unless strategic interests align.
Moreover, a resurgent INDIA Bloc, led by Tejashwi Yadav and supported by secular and leftist allies, though currently trailing in the polls, could offer a more moderate voice on regional relations if they gain ground. Their focus on jobs, youth, and governance rather than aggressive nationalism may ease rhetorical tensions, even if tangible diplomatic changes remain unlikely.
For Pakistani observers, Bihar’s elections also offer insights into India’s socio-political undercurrents, especially caste dynamics, Muslim representation, and the space available for minority voices. The performance of AIMIM in Seemanchal and the electoral discourse surrounding Muslims and backward castes will be watched closely, as they reflect India’s domestic treatment of minorities — a point often raised in Pakistan’s diplomatic and media narratives.
