The world is at a crossroads with the rise of Asia and transformation of the unipolarity into multipolarity. With the advent of a multi-polar global order and an unfolding era of a new cold war, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s (SCO) relevance magnifies in the Eurasian region and international politics. The Chinese and Russians see the SCO as a tool to increase their international clout.
SCO is an important Eurasian multinational political, economic, and security bloc. It has been slowly expanding making up almost 40 percent of the world’s population. It is aimed to combat the menace of radicalized militancy and concurrently promote the Shanghai Spirit, which embodies mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality, mutual consultations, respect for cultural diversity, and common development among the member states. According to Article 1, the SCO members necessitate joint counteraction against terrorism, separatism, and extremism in all their manifestations. Besides, it is also determined to resolve the border issues agreeably.
China invited bordering Central Asian states and Russia to lay the foundation of the Shanghai Five to discuss security issues in 1996. In 2001, Shanghai Five was swapped with SCO with a broader scope. Currently, it has eight permanent members—China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, India, and Pakistan. Four observer states – Afghanistan, Belarus, Mongolia, and, Iran, plus six dialogue partners: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Turkey.
Since the beginning, the SCO leaders have endorsed multipolar world order. In September 2022, they reiterated a stronger multilateral world order led by several powers and regions at a two-day SCO summit held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. The Samarkand Declaration of the Council of Heads of State of SCO released on September 16, 2022, stated, “The member states, based on the proximity or convergence of assessments of the current regional and international agenda, reaffirm their commitment to a more representative, democratic, just and multipolar world order based on the universally recognized principles of international law, multilateralism, equal, common, indivisible, comprehensive and sustainable security, multicultural and civilizational diversity, mutual benefit and equal cooperation among states with a central coordinating role for the UN.”
Pakistan has been committed to the SCO Charter and processes. Therefore, despite the severe tension with India, Foreign Minister (FM) Bilawal Bhutto Zardari participated in the SCO Council of Foreign Ministers (CFMs) meeting hosted by India in Goa on May 4-5, 2023. FM Bilawal said, “There couldn’t be a more powerful indication of the importance that Pakistan attaches to the SCO than my presence here in Goa for this CFM.” Indeed, the participation reveals Pakistan’s diplomatic maturity and belief in international multilateral institutions.
Ironically, India and Pakistan animosity was obvious during the recent SCO-CFMs Goa meeting, even though the Organization’s charter prohibits the debate of bilateral issues/conflicts. Indian Minister of External Affairs (MEA) S. Jaishankar, in his address at the SCO meeting, attempted to malign Pakistan by accusing it of sponsoring cross-border terrorism. He stated, “We firmly believe that there can be no justification for terrorism and it must be stopped in all its forms and manifestations, including cross-border terrorism.”
FM Bilawal responded eloquently to set the record straight. He generously praised Jai Shankar for fulfilling his duties as SCO host. However, without mincing words, he reiterated that the onus to normalize ties between India and Pakistan was on New Delhi. He underlined, “The collective security of our peoples is our joint responsibility. Terrorism continues to threaten global security.” He categorically added, “Let’s not get caught up in weaponizing terrorism for diplomatic point-scoring.” Besides, he reminded his counterparts that the “unilateral and illegal measures by states in violation of international law and Security Council resolutions run counter to the SCO objectives.”
The SCO-CFMs meeting concluded in Goa on May 6, 2023, and a summit of the Organization’s leader will be held in New Delhi on July 3-4, 2023. Mr. Bilawal’s Goa visit implies that Prime Minister Shahbaz Shriaf will travel to New Delhi to participate in the Summit. However, the Indian External Affairs Minister’s pugnacious statements during and after the SCO-CFMs meeting indicate that the Modi government is not prepared to improve bilateral relations with Pakistan due to its Hindutva political necessities. Many analysts opine that Jaishankar did unduly criticize Pakistan during the meeting because the BJP government “did not want to give any optics that would have undermined its narrative before the state elections in Karnataka.”
Nevertheless, the multilateral meetings do produce unexpected developments, when leaders meet on the sidelines. In the 1980s, the SAARC Summit provided an opportunity for Prime Minister Muhammad Khan Junejo and Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi to end the Indian armed forces’ Operation Brass-track (1986-87 winter) and reboot the dialogue process to prevent the war between the belligerent neighbors. Ironically, such an optimistic development is unexpected in the forthcoming SCO Summit in July due to domestic political dynamics in India and Pakistan.
The general perception is that SCO can be very useful in lowering the tension between India and Pakistan. Paradoxically, the Organization did not play any role in defusing tension between the belligerent neighbors because bilateral disputes cannot be part of SCO’s agenda. Secondly, India is not prepared to restart a dialogue process with Pakistan, despite the latter’s willingness. Therefore, Jaishankar and Bilawal did not formally meet on the sidelines of the SCO-CFM meeting in Goa.
MEA Jaishankar had also ruled out the probability of ending the deadlock between India and Pakistan. He said, “It is very difficult for us to engage with a neighbor who practices cross-border terrorism against us. We have always said that they have to deliver on the commitment not to encourage, sponsor, and carry out cross-border terrorism. We continue to hope that one day we would reach that stage.”
Jai Shankar’s speech dashed the sanguinity that if there was no breakthrough between India and Pakistan, at least there would not be further deterioration in ties between them at Goa. His proposal that all forms of terrorism including cross-border terrorism must be eradicated faded away hopes of thaw and necessitated Mr. Bilawal to respond in kind.
To conclude, the SCO has gradually emerged as an important regional and global geopolitical and geo-economic bloc. Moreover, the dynamics of global geopolitics are facilitating economic interdependence among South and Central Asians and simultaneously hardening the strategic competition between India and Pakistan.
