India Cuts Chenab River Flow by 90pc, Sparking Water Crisis in Pakistan

 KEY POINTS

• Flow at Marala Headworks has plunged from 35,000 to just 3,100 cusecs.
• Pakistani officials say the reduction is not seasonal but a deliberate upstream restriction.
• India’s dams on western rivers allow temporary but impactful flow manipulation.
• Pakistan’s agrarian economy relies on the Indus system for over 80pc of its water supply.
• Chenab alone provides about 17pc of Pakistan’s surface water.
• PARC estimates up to 30pc crop losses due to the water shortage.
• Pakistan views India’s water control as a breach of treaty obligations.

ISLAMABAD: In what experts are calling a severe breach of hydrological balance, Pakistan faces a looming water crisis after India abruptly curtailed the flow of the Chenab River.

Flow levels at Marala Headworks have plunged from the usual 35,000 cusecs to barely 3,100 cusecs following the closure of upstream spillways at India’s Baglihar and Salal dams—marking a staggering 90 per cent reduction.

“This is not a natural seasonal dip. It’s a forced constriction,” a senior official from Pakistan’s Indus River System Authority (IRSA) warned.

The Indus River System, Pakistan’s agricultural lifeline, delivers approximately 154 million acre-feet (MAF) of water annually, of which over 75 per cent flows through the western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab—allocated to Pakistan under the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT).

Among them, the Chenab River contributes around 26 MAF, or nearly 17 per cent of Pakistan’s total annual surface water supply.

Treaty in jeopardy

Under the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), brokered by the World Bank, India was granted control of the Eastern Rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—while Pakistan retained rights to the Western Rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.

Pakistan receives 80 per cent of the Indus system’s annual flow, a lifeline for its largely agrarian economy.

Yet India’s growing network of hydroelectric projects on the western rivers—including Dul Hasti, Ratle, and Kishanganga—gives it the ability to temporarily withhold water during critical agricultural seasons.

While these projects fall under the “run-of-the-river” clause of the treaty, they still enable short-term manipulations.

The Chenab choke

The sudden decline in flow is particularly damaging during the Kharif crop season, when Pakistan’s breadbasket province, Punjab, plants water-intensive crops like cotton, sugarcane, and maize.

“We’re heading towards canal shutdowns and widespread irrigation failure,” a Punjab irrigation department official said.

According to the Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC), the water shortfall may lead to 30 per cent yield losses, jeopardising both food security and farmers’ livelihoods.

Ecological fallout

Beyond agriculture, low flows severely disrupt riverine ecosystems. Wetlands dry up, fish nurseries collapse, and migratory bird routes are altered.

The World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF)-Pakistan warns that such disruptions, although gradual, can lead to groundwater overuse, exacerbating an already dire depletion rate of 1 to 1.5 meters annually in central Punjab.

Breaking down river contributions

The chart below illustrates the relative water flows from the six main rivers of the Indus system. Notably, the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab (all western rivers) contribute the bulk of Pakistan’s water supply.

Note: MAF = Million Acre-Feet

The western rivers collectively contribute over 75 per cent of Pakistan’s water availability, underscoring the high stakes of any upstream manipulation.

“India’s cumulative active storage on western rivers has reached nearly 4 MAF, which is enough to create artificial shortages in Pakistan during Rabi and Kharif seasons,” said Dr. Pervaiz Amir, a leading water policy expert.

“The technicality here is that India is not storing water permanently, but even a few days of flow manipulation can be devastating downstream.”

The move has heightened diplomatic tensions, with Pakistan warning that such actions could be considered acts of aggression.

Strategic water weaponisation?

While India maintains its dam operations are within treaty limits, the timing of the blockage—coinciding with recent cross-border military escalations—has raised suspicions.

“Hydrology has become a tool of coercion,” noted a former IRSA chairman. “We must monitor river flow data as rigorously as we do radar screens.”

A flow too far

India’s upstream regulation of the Chenab and Jhelum—especially during low-flow winter and early summer months—poses a grave threat to Pakistan’s water-dependent sectors.

Experts warn that unless mitigated through diplomatic or legal channels, such actions risk not only violating the Indus Waters Treaty, but also escalating regional instability.

Pakistan, they argue, must treat water flow metrics as critical national security data.

Water, in South Asia, is no longer just a resource—it’s a strategic weapon.