KEY POINTS
- Pakistan must defeat Sri Lanka convincingly on February 28 to reach 3 points
- New Zealand losing both remaining matches against Sri Lanka and England is the cleanest qualification path
- If New Zealand wins one match, qualification will be decided by Net Run Rate
- Pakistan’s current NRR of -0.461 demands a substantial victory margin against Sri Lanka
ISLAMABAD: England have become the first team from Group 2 to secure their semi-final berth in the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2026 after a thrilling two-wicket victory over Pakistan at the Pallekele International Cricket Stadium.
Harry Brook’s magnificent unbeaten century guided the Three Lions to their second consecutive win in the Super Eight stage, leaving Pakistan’s campaign hanging by a thread.
While the defeat has severely dented Pakistan’s prospects, the Men in Green are not mathematically eliminated.
With one crucial match remaining against Sri Lanka on February 28, here is how Pakistan can still keep their semi-final dreams alive.
Current Group 2 Standings
After England’s victory, the Group 2 points table presents a challenging picture for Pakistan:
| Team | Matches | Won | Lost | Points | NRR |
| England | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1.491 |
| Pakistan | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -0.461 |
| New Zealand | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 |
| Sri Lanka | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2.550 |
Pakistan’s Qualification Scenarios
Scenario 1: New Zealand Lose Both Remaining Matches
The most straightforward path for Pakistan involves New Zealand losing both their upcoming encounters against Sri Lanka (February 25) and England (February 27). In this case:
Pakistan must defeat Sri Lanka in their final match on February 28
A victory would take Pakistan to 3 points
New Zealand would finish with only 1 point (from the washed-out match against Pakistan)
Sri Lanka would finish with a maximum of 2 points (if they beat New Zealand but lose to Pakistan)
This scenario would see Pakistan claim the second semi-final spot alongside England.
Scenario 2: New Zealand Beat Sri Lanka But Lose to England
If New Zealand defeat Sri Lanka but then lose to England, the situation becomes more complicated and introduces Net Run Rate (NRR) into the equation:
New Zealand would have 3 points (1 from washed-out match + win over Sri Lanka)
Pakistan would need to beat Sri Lanka to reach 3 points
The second semi-final spot would then be decided by NRR
Currently, Pakistan’s NRR stands at -0.461 following their narrow defeat to England. To overtake New Zealand on NRR, Pakistan would need to defeat Sri Lanka by a substantial margin. T
he exact margin required will depend on New Zealand’s winning margin against Sri Lanka and the margin of their loss to England.
Scenario 3: New Zealand Win Both Remaining Matches
This is the worst-case scenario for Pakistan. If New Zealand defeat both Sri Lanka and England, they would reach 5 points and secure the second semi-final spot alongside England.
In this case, Pakistan would be eliminated even before playing their final match against Sri Lanka.
Remaining Group 2 Fixtures
| Date | Fixture | Venue |
| February 25 | New Zealand vs Sri Lanka | Colombo |
| February 27 | England vs New Zealand | Colombo |
| February 28 | Pakistan vs Sri Lanka | Pallekele |
The Importance of Net Run Rate
Should Pakistan and New Zealand both finish on 3 points, NRR will become the deciding factor.
Pakistan’s current NRR of -0.461 means they need not just a victory against Sri Lanka, but a comprehensive one. Every run scored and every ball saved in the field will matter enormously.
What They Need to Do
For Pakistan to keep their hopes alive, the ideal sequence of results is:
Sri Lanka defeat New Zealand on February 25 – This keeps all three teams in contention
England defeat New Zealand on February 27 – This prevents New Zealand from accumulating too many points
Pakistan defeat Sri Lanka convincingly on February 28 – The margin of victory must be substantial to improve NRR
If New Zealand win their first match against Sri Lanka, Pakistan must then hope for an England victory over New Zealand and prepare for an NRR battle in their final fixture.
The Reality Check
While these scenarios offer mathematical hope, Pakistan’s fate is no longer in their own hands.
They must now rely on other results going their way while simultaneously delivering a commanding performance against Sri Lanka.
England, meanwhile, march confidently into the semi-finals with an unbeaten record in the Super Eight stage, their captain leading from the front with what will be remembered as one of the finest centuries in T20 World Cup history.
Pakistan’s journey in the T20 World Cup 2026 now hangs by the slenderest of threads, but as the cliché goes, it’s not over until it’s over.
