NEW YORK/DOHA: US President Donald Trump’s new Gaza peace plan, unveiled on Monday, originated from a failed Israeli attempt to assassinate Hamas leaders in Qatar three weeks ago, according to American news website Axios, which cited four sources with direct knowledge.
The strike inadvertently created conditions for regional diplomacy, but analysts warn the plan offers little to Palestinians while entrenching Israel’s leverage.
Israeli strike sparks outrage
On 9 September, Israel bombed Qatar’s capital Doha to target Hamas’s negotiators. The attack failed but triggered a wave of Arab anger at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. It also hardened calls within Israel itself for a deal to free hostages and to end the ongoing military offensive in Gaza, which has killed at least 66,225 Palestinians since October 2023.
Qatari officials, furious at the strike, suspended mediation efforts and lobbied regional and international actors against Israel. Arab leaders, speaking with one voice, denounced the attack.
According to Trump advisers Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, what at first appeared to be a destabilising crisis was soon reframed as an opportunity, Axios reported.
“The failed Doha attack changed the regional dynamics and opened the door for a real discussion about how to end the war in Gaza,” a US official told Axios.
From crisis to opportunity
Witkoff and Kushner, who had met Netanyahu confidant Ron Dermer in Miami a day before the strike, felt deceived when the attack went ahead without their knowledge, according to Axios. Within days, however, they persuaded Trump to pursue a plan that could use Arab unity as a springboard for negotiations.
They merged an existing US ceasefire and hostage proposal with a post-war governance framework Kushner had worked on with former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, according to Axios. The result was a 20-point document, later shared with Arab and Israeli officials.
At the UN General Assembly in New York, Qatar proposed a summit with Trump and eight Arab and Muslim leaders. During the meeting, Muslim leaders condemned Israel’s actions in Doha.
Trump then asked Witkoff to present the draft plan, which reportedly drew a positive response. By the following evening, the US and Muslim participants had reached a preliminary agreement, according to Axios.
Netanyahu resists but pressured
Talks with Netanyahu in New York proved more difficult. Israeli officials sought major changes, especially over conditions for troop withdrawal from Gaza. By Saturday, rumours spread that Netanyahu might reject the plan outright, according to Axios.
That prompted Trump to deliver what one source, cited by Axios, described as a “stern and clear” call to the Israeli leader. “Trump told Bibi in no uncertain terms: ‘Take it or leave it. And leave it means we walk away from you,’” the source said. Over the weekend, Trump spoke five times with Netanyahu, pressing him for a “clear yes” rather than conditional approval.
Ultimately, Netanyahu accepted some elements while inserting new demands that angered Arab partners, particularly on withdrawal terms. Despite Qatari advice to delay publication, Trump released the plan on Monday, Axios reported.
Key elements of Gaza peace plan
The 20-point proposal calls for:
- A ceasefire in Gaza and the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and remains.
- The transfer of Gaza’s administration to a “Board of Peace” chaired by Trump, including former UK PM Tony Blair.
- Amnesty for Hamas members accepting disarmament and coexistence; safe passage for those choosing exile.
- Israeli troop withdrawal under conditions yet to be enforced, alongside an economic revitalisation plan led by foreign experts.
- A “credible pathway” to Palestinian self-determination tied to reforms by the Palestinian Authority (PA).
Trump warned Hamas that rejection of the plan would leave Israel free to act “with full US backing.”
Palestinian reaction
Qatar said Hamas had received the full text and pledged to “responsibly examine” it.
Analysts, however, criticised the proposal. Palestinian lawyer and former negotiator Diana Buttu, cited by Al Jazeera, argued it grants no protections to Palestinians. “All guarantees are provided to the Israelis,” she said, describing the deal as a “colonial approach” that sidelines Palestinian voices.
Muhannad Seloom of the Doha Institute, cited by Al Jazeera, called the plan “a rushed agreement” with unclear enforcement mechanisms, especially regarding Israeli withdrawal. He noted that the PA’s role is delayed until unspecified reforms are completed, leaving Gaza’s future governance uncertain.
Even as talks are continued, Israeli attacks intensified. Since the start of the war in October 2023, Gaza’s health ministry says at least 66,225 Palestinians have been killed and 168,346 wounded. On Thursday alone, Israeli strikes killed 53 people.
Palestinian statehood
The Trump plan arrives as several Western states, including Canada, Australia, the UK, France and Portugal, have recognised Palestine. Yet analysts question what remains of a viable Palestinian state amid illegal Israeli settlement expansion and ongoing war.
Netanyahu has repeatedly vowed to prevent the creation of a Palestinian state, recently approving new illegal settlement projects in the illegally occupied West Bank. Critics argue the plan entrenches illegal occupation.
Trump insists his plan is the “final stage” of negotiations and could pave the way for broader Middle East peace. But with Hamas still deliberating, the agreement’s durability is far from assured.
