The unceremonious exit from power and country of the former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajid is a rude awakening for the autocratic leaders. Though the political crisis has been brewing since the January 2024 general elections in Bangladesh, which was boycotted by the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party, the student protest triggered a process that completely eroded Premier Hasina’s legitimacy and hastened her fleeing to India on August 6, 2024. Indeed, the dramatic departure of Ms. Hasina from Bangladeshi politics—back-to-back 15-year rule—will have critical corollaries for domestic, regional, and global politics.
The collective anger about years of autocratic governance, human rights abuses, corruption, increasing unemployment, and rigged elections had coalesced into an uprising. The students and general public have been expressing their serious reservations over the quota system—which reserved 30 percent of government jobs for those related to veterans of 1971 war to favor loyalists of the ruling political party, the Awami League. The student’s protest over the quota system turned into a mass movement against PM Hasina, who had secured a straight fourth term in office in controversial elections held in January 2024.
Premier Hasina called protestors as traitors. She said they are razakars, which means volunteers, but they are considered derogatory in Bangladesh. In Bengali, parlance remains loaded shorthand for collaborators with Pakistan’s military forces during 1971 war. In a press conference, while defending the quota system, she said, “If the grandchildren of the freedom fighters don’t get quota benefits, should the grandchildren of Razakars get the benefit?” The Chhatra League—the thuggish student wing of the ruling Awami League—was dispatched to confront the initially peaceful demonstrators. The protesting students adopted a slogan: “Who are you? Who am I? Razakar, Razakar! Who says that? dictator, dictator!”
President Mohammed Shahabuddin dissolved the parliament and released Begum Khaleda Zia, a former prime minister and leader of the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), from house arrest on August 6, 2024. The dissolution of parliament cleared the way for the interim government and new elections. People are celebrating Ms Hasina’s resignation and fleeing to India. However, the domestic situation continues to unfold and thereby remains unpredictable.
The demonstrators are demanding the trial of Ms Hasina and her cohorts over the killing of hundreds of protesters by the security forces. According to reports, more than 400 people died as security forces sought to quell the unrest. The probability of a summary trial exists because Premier Hasina’s government set a precedent by executing many opposition leaders after dubious trials for being ‘collaborators’ during Bangladesh’s war in 1971.
The country is now under the military, but Army chief Gen. Waker-Uz-Zaman has preferred the formation of an interim government under the headship of Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus comprising technocrats and govern the state indirectly or play the role of arbiter. Realizing the people who fought against authoritarian rule by a political party may not accept military dictatorship. Yunus called the day of Hasina’s departure Bangladesh’s “second liberation day.” Nahid Islam, one of the key organizers of the student movement, announced, “We wouldn’t accept any army-supported or army-led government.”
Although the new government promised to hold general elections soon, the probability of prolonging the military regime exists. The Bangladesh Army has a long history of coups. If the Bangladeshi military junta plans to exit quickly from political affairs, the BNP and its like-minded political factions seem in a better position to win the forthcoming election. Therefore, the student leaders and the major opposition BNP have demanded elections within three months.
Ms. Hasina was a close ally of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and supported his aggressive South Asian policies. Bangladesh, despite being a founding member of SAARC, preferred Modi’s anti-organizational stance. India’s foreign minister Jaishankar opined that foreign governments were involved in creating current unrest in Bangladesh. Nonetheless, in Ms Hasina’s ouster, New Delhi has lost a close regional ally. Indeed, the shift in Dhaka’s external policy undermines New Delhi’s ‘neighbor-fist policy,’ diplomatically called ‘neighbor-first policy.’
Currently, the Modi government is in a fix because giving asylum to Ms Hasina means annoying the Bangali interim administration and Army. Yunus said, “India is our best friend. People are angry at India because you are supporting the person who destroyed our lives.”
The new government in Dhaka, led by BNP, may tilt towards China and Islamabad, further exposing India’s isolation in South Asia and providing a sympathetic state to China in the Indo-Pacific region.
Modi’s apparent tilt towards the United States and India’s membership of QUAD and proximity with the Hasina government limit the prospect of the China-Bangaldesh Corridor, an essential project of President Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative. Ms Hasina’s ouster from the office may increase the challenges for the US and India in curbing Beijing’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
To conclude, former Prime Minister Hasina’s administration’s draconian laws, highhandedness, and coercive tactics failed to control the demonstrators and guard the regime. She stepped down and flew to India amid deadly mass protests. Consequently, the Bengalis are envisioning their new internal and external policies.
