TOKYO: The first US presidential debate of the 2024 race scarcely touched on foreign policy, yet analysts suggest that President Joe Biden’s shaky performance has prompted America’s allies steeling for the potential return of Donald Trump.
Biden’s supporters had hoped the debate would erase concerns about his age, but several lawmakers, analysts, and investors believe the event bolstered Trump’s prospects.
Kunihiko Miyake, a former Japanese diplomat now with the Canon Institute for Global Studies, remarked, “Mr. Trump didn’t win, but Mr. Biden may have faltered.”
“Unlike eight years ago, we are more prepared, as are other European and Asian allies,” Miyake added. “Nevertheless, Mr. Trump remains unpredictable.”
For Japan and South Korea, pivotal US allies in Asia, relations under Trump’s administration were occasionally strained by demands for increased military payments and trade tensions.
“Japan’s foremost concern would be Trump’s commitment to maintaining the security alliance,” noted Takashi Kawakami, a professor at Takushoku University in Tokyo.
Peter Lee, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul, observed that the debate starkly highlighted the potential for a second Trump administration. Lee anticipated Trump would adopt a tough stance, pressuring allies to raise defense spending.
Trump’s tariff disputes with China and his proposals for steep tariffs on Chinese goods if re-elected also drew attention. Overseas companies reliant on US markets, such as automakers, expressed wariness about Trump’s potential return, given his previous tariff policies.
“Trump, known for his aggressive trade policies, might extend tariffs beyond China, citing American exceptionalism,” said Stephen Lee, chief economist at Meritz Securities in Seoul.
In Europe, Trump’s criticisms of NATO and insistence on increased contributions from other members defined his previous tenure. With Russian hostilities in Ukraine escalating concerns, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, once optimistic about Biden’s re-election, faced criticism within his coalition following Biden’s lackluster debate performance.
Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann of Germany’s FDP party lamented, “The prospect of Trump returning due to Democratic failure to field a strong candidate would be a historic tragedy felt globally.”
During the debate, Trump accused Biden of weakness on China trade policies and claimed world leaders like Xi Jinping, Kim Jong Un, and Vladimir Putin lacked respect for Biden.
Biden countered by warning of increased costs for consumers under Trump’s tariff proposals and criticized Trump’s relationships with authoritarian leaders.
The Kremlin declined to comment on US internal affairs, including Trump’s remarks. Despite uncertainties, US allies like Japan and Germany have begun preparing for a possible Trump comeback, anticipating potential shifts in trade policies and international relations.
“The possibility of Trump’s return has heightened. Major changes in tariffs and policies toward Ukraine are expected,” said Kazuhiro Maeshima of Sophia University in Tokyo, highlighting Japan’s proactive measures in anticipation of potential Trump administration policies.
