KEY POINTS
- $1.4bn agriculture losses already recorded
- Past pledges vs. delivery expose deep trust deficit
- Saudi, US, UN aid flow in as stop-gap support
- Rehabilitation may again exceed $15bn
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is facing a multi-billion-dollar recovery challenge after this year’s floods, with preliminary damage assessments showing losses of more than $1.4 billion in agriculture alone, while broader estimates are still being compiled.
The officials are warning that the ultimate bill could rival or exceed the devastation of 2022. The unfolding crisis has revived concerns over whether the country can mobilise enough external and domestic resources to bridge what analysts describe as a “trust deficit” between global pledges and actual delivery.
According to a National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) situation report shared with local media, officials cautioned that the agriculture loss figure represents only a fraction of the overall devastation, with rapid needs surveys and UN geospatial analysis still underway.
Saudi relief has been among the most prominent early responses. The King Salman Humanitarian Aid and Relief Centre (KSRelief) told Arab News that it has delivered food, shelter and other items reaching more than 200,000 people across Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan.
In addition, Saudi-owned Wafi Energy donated 5,000 litres of fuel to the NDMA, its chief executive confirmed to the Saudi Press Agency. Officials in Riyadh said further consignments are already being prepared.
At the same time, Washington has stepped up emergency shipments. The second of six US-announced humanitarian consignments landed in Islamabad on September 15, carrying tents, dewatering pumps, generators and other supplies, according to a report in The Express Tribune.
The US State Department said in a press statement that the goods would be distributed through Army Flood Relief Camps, alongside additional monetary support for food and shelter.
The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) confirmed an initial allocation of about USD 600,000 for immediate relief. In its latest flash update, OCHA noted that Rapid Needs Assessments are underway in the badly hit districts.
A UN-led geospatial flood impact assessment is expected to begin shortly. Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb told The News that agriculture and loss surveys will be completed within two weeks.
The scale of the current emergency recalls the catastrophic 2022 floods. A World Bank-led Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) estimated direct damages then at USD 14.9 billion, economic losses at USD 15.2 billion, and reconstruction needs at USD 16.3 billion, underscoring how recovery becomes a multi-year challenge.
That history also raises sharp questions about donor delivery. After the 2022 Geneva conference, international partners pledged roughly USD 11 billion, but less than USD 3 billion had materialised by mid-2025.
Profit by Pakistan Today reported in July that “more than 80 per cent of the Geneva pledges remain unfulfilled, with some donors linking commitments to long-term projects rather than emergency relief.” Aid workers told Reuters that donors remain cautious and the “pledge-to-delivery gap” is a reality Pakistan must prepare for.
Fiscal constraints add to the challenge. An IMF spokesperson told Reuters the mission “will examine how Pakistan’s budget framework can accommodate urgent flood relief and rehabilitation while preserving fiscal stability,” signalling that Islamabad’s spending response will be under scrutiny.
According to Finance Ministry officials, the government has been making efforts to balance urgent relief with macroeconomic commitments under its Extended Fund Facility.
Politics is already shaping the government’s approach. PPP chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari publicly urged Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to launch a formal international appeal through UN mechanisms.
As of mid-September, no flash appeal has been issued. Instead, the Prime Minister has ordered domestic relief measures, including exploring electricity bill relief in affected districts, and set a “100-day target” for initial rehabilitation.
A senior planning ministry official told The Express Tribune that “we cannot afford the Geneva gap again,” warning that without transparent project pipelines and faster conversion of pledges into implementable grants, critical infrastructure and agriculture restoration could once again be delayed.
Donor Pledge and Delivery Table (Flood Aid 2022 – Reference for 2025)
| Donor/Entity | Pledged (USD) | Committed/Contracts (USD) | Disbursed/Actual (USD) | In-kind Assistance | Attribution |
| World Bank | ~2 bn | ~1.4 bn | ~1.2 bn | Technical support, project loans | PDNA / World Bank reports |
| Asian Dev. Bank | ~1.5 bn | ~900 m | ~600 m | Policy-based loans | Govt. budget docs / Dawn |
| Saudi Arabia | ~1 bn | ~300 m | ~200 m | KSRelief consignments; 5,000L fuel donated | Arab News / SPA |
| United States | ~200 m | ~150 m | ~100 m | Relief flights, food, shelter kits | Express Tribune / State Dept. |
| European Union | ~200 m | ~120 m | ~80 m | Food security programs, in-kind equipment | EU / OCHA updates |
| China | ~100 m | ~70 m | ~50 m | Medical teams, tents, machinery | Govt. communiqués |
| Private/NGOs | ~500 m | ~300 m | ~150 m | Relief items, WASH kits, schooling support | OCHA / NGOs flash updates |
