KEY POINTS
- UN set 2027 deadline for global early warning coverage.
- Pakistan ranks top in the 2022 extreme weather loss index.
- EWS was installed in 24 valleys across KP and GB.
- 3,044 glacial lakes threaten over 7 million residents.
- 750 lives lost in the 2025 monsoon floods alone.
- KP glaciers like Mankiyal and Chiatibo pose huge risks.
PESHAWAR, Pakistan: As climate change intensifies, Early Warning Systems (EWS) have become the need of the hour for countries vulnerable to natural disasters, where timely and reliable alerts can save lives and limit economic losses from floods, landslides, droughts, and other climate-related hazards.
“The damage caused by a disaster can be reduced by 30 per cent if an early warning is issued within 24 hours,” the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) notes.
This equally applies to both hilly and plain areas, as timely warnings provide adequate time for people to head for higher ground.
The United Nations has set a 2027 deadline for every signatory country to install Early Warning Systems. However, in Pakistan, Early Warning Systems have not yet been installed in most plains and hilly regions; they are currently limited to selected valleys.
The Germanwatch Climate Risk Index 2025—an independent development, environmental, and human rights organisation based in Germany—ranks Pakistan first among the countries most affected by extreme weather events in 2022.
It is largely due to economic losses worth US $30 billion. The recent flood devastation across Pakistan, particularly in the northern regions, speaks volumes.
To counter this growing threat, Pakistan has developed an integrated Early Warning System mechanism, bringing multiple agencies into closer coordination.
The WMO data shows that half of all disasters recorded over the past 50 years have been linked to weather, climate, and water hazards—a wake-up call for vulnerable nations.
Launched in 2022 by UN Secretary-General António Guterres, the ‘Early Warnings for All initiative’ aims to ensure that by 2027, everyone on Earth is protected from hazardous weather, water, or climate events through life-saving warning systems.
Launched in 2022 by UN Secretary-General António Guterres, the ‘Early Warnings for All initiative’ aims to ensure that by 2027, everyone on Earth is protected from hazardous weather, water, or climate events through life-saving warning systems.
Monitoring extreme weather
Pakistan’s integrated Early Warning System continuously monitors extreme weather events. The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) receives the latest data from its network and issues forecasts and alerts for heavy rains, floods, landslides, glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), and droughts.
Once PMD issues a warning, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and Provincial Disaster Management Authorities (PDMAs) circulate alerts to relevant provincial departments.
These are then relayed to divisional and district administrations, where commissioners and deputy commissioners take protective action on the ground. At the district level, administrations generally lack the latest heavy emergency equipment.
However, each district has established Rescue 1122 offices equipped with ambulances, rescue boats, and tractors to clear roads from snow and flood debris.
PMD’s Flood Forecasting Division in Lahore—one of the country’s most advanced facilities—monitors flood risks across all eastern rivers and issues alerts.
The Irrigation Department and Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) also track river flows and water levels in dams, notifying authorities when levels reach dangerous thresholds.
The WMO describes the Early Warning System as a mechanism designed to analyse and identify potential weather and climate-related risks, enabling early action to safeguard lives, livelihoods, and assets.
“As of 2024, as many as 108 countries report having some capacity for multi-hazard early warning systems—more than double the 52 countries in 2015,” a WMO report notes.
Real-time data flow
In partnership with the Green Climate Fund (founded in 2010, which is the largest global fund helping developing nations tackle climate change), UNDP, the Ministry of Climate Change, PMD, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the authorities concerned identified high-risk valleys for GLOF events.
Subsequently, Early Warning Systems were installed in eight Khyber Pakhtunkhwa valleys, including Thal–Kumrat, (Upper Dir), Matiltan, Utror, Mankiyal (Swat), Reshun, Madaklasht, Arkari (Chitral), and Kandian (Upper Kohistan).
While in Gilgit-Baltistan, the systems were set up in 16 high risk valleys, including Ghulkin, Badswat, Darkut, Rupal/Tarashing, Barah, Khaplu, Ghundus, Shishper, Muthat, Shimshal, Strangbut, Hisper, Haramosh, Sosat, Parashing, and Arandu. These stations transmit live data to PMD hubs in Peshawar, Islamabad, and Gilgit, enabling faster and more accurate warnings.
As of 2024, as many as 108 countries report having some capacity for multi-hazard early warning systems—more than double the 52 countries in 2015.” – WMO report
According to UNDP data, these installations include Automatic Weather Stations (AWS), rain gauges, snow depth sensors, water depth gauges, water discharge gauges, data loggers, and warning posts.
These sensitive instruments feed real-time data to relevant authorities, enabling timely preparation and response to climate disasters such as GLOFs.
The Automatic Weather Stations have primarily been installed to monitor glaciers and rivers, and during the ongoing monsoon season in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, no GLOF incident or major riverine flooding has been reported.
The recent devastation was instead caused by heavy rains that swelled local streams in Swat, Buner, Shangla, Swabi, and Bajaur.
The Met Office had already issued weather alerts in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan, while in Hunza Valley, one GLOF incident was reported, for which both the Early Warning System and the central Met Office had issued timely alerts.
In northern Pakistan, the rapid melting of Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Himalayan glaciers due to rising temperatures has created 3,044 glacial lakes in Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Thirty-three of these are considered hazardous and capable of triggering GLOFs, which can release millions of cubic metres of water and debris within hours, destroying lives, property, and infrastructure in remote mountain communities.
Over seven million people in Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are at risk.
“Globally, early warning systems could help avoid losses of US$3–16 billion annually,” the WMO estimates.
Why do fatalities still occur?
Despite these systems, fatalities continue during the monsoon season. Dr Muhammad Fahim, Deputy Director at PMD’s Regional Meteorological Centre in Peshawar, says community deaths have declined, but tourist deaths remain high because many travellers throw caution to the wind.
However, in the recent flooding, local communities were again among the worst affected. The floods struck people living along the banks of streams and waterways where flooding has been reported in the past.
In 2010, for instance, Mingora’s Makan Bagh area was inundated by the same stream, while in 1995 Buner’s Pir Baba area was hit by floods that killed more than six people.
Over the past 30 years, more houses and markets have been constructed in front of centuries-old waterways, which is why the latest floods resulted in hundreds of casualties. Locals, unfortunately, did not learn their lessons the hard way from earlier disasters.
“This monsoon, rainfall has been heavier than usual, but local communities are responding to alerts. Most fatalities are tourists, often on the roads during flood events and ignoring warnings,” he says.
PMD figures show that monsoon rainfall up to August 11, 2025, stood at 104 mm. In comparison, 212 mm was recorded in 2024, 146 mm in 2023, 387 mm in 2022, 128 mm in 2021, and 199 mm in 2020.
The normal average for the season is considered to be 141 mm. The Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the United Nations body assessing the science related to climate change, projects more intense rainfall in the region, while historical records show that heavy rainfall episodes have increased by 75 per cent over the past few decades.
This monsoon, rainfall has been heavier than usual, but local communities are responding to alerts. Most fatalities are tourists, often on the roads during flood events and ignoring warnings.” – Dr. Fahim, Deputy Director at PMD
Despite these patterns and local communities responding to alerts, most fatalities continue to be among tourists, who are often on the roads during flood events and tend to ignore warnings.
Tragic examples include flash floods in Swat on June 27 and at Babusar Top on July 21, which killed and swept away multiple tourists.
Since the season began in late June, more than 750 people have lost their lives and 978 have been injured, NDMA records indicate—a toll that shows nature still has the power to hit where it hurts most.
The National Disaster Management Authority data reveal that at least 34 weather advisories were issued before and during the ongoing monsoon.
But as Dr Fahim explains, mountain floods strike in as little as one hour, rarely more than three, compared to 12–24 hours in the plains, giving far less time to evacuate.
KP’s disaster hotspots
In Upper Swat’s Hindu Kush range, glaciers in Matiltan and Mankiyal remain high-risk. The Early Warning Systems were installed to monitor them, especially after fragments of the Mankiyal glacier caused widespread destruction during the 2022 floods.
Broghil Valley in the Wakhan corridor—which connects Pakistan and Afghanistan with Central Asia—has massive glaciers: one around eight kilometres long, other glaciers have not been measured so far.
Experts warn that if these glaciers burst, the impact could devastate communities in both Pakistan and Afghanistan. The rising temperature in the Hindu Kush Mountains could cause glacial bursts.
A Peshawar-based climate expert—who accompanied the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge during their visit to the remote Chiatibo Glacier in Broghil National Park in Chitral in 2019—warns that “a strong GLOF incident in Chiatibo could spell disaster for half of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.”
Official claims
Barrister Dr Muhammad Ali Saif, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister’s Advisor on Information and Public Relations, tells WE News English that Early Warning Systems are internationally recognised for saving lives.
“The aim of installing EWS in KP’s vulnerable valleys is to ensure timely alerts, evacuation drills, and local-level responses to minimise loss of life. The systems have already recorded cases where timely warnings and evacuations saved lives in Upper Dir, Swat, and Chitral,” he claims.
Yet, NDMA’s 2024 annual report paints a grimmer picture, recording 368 deaths during the monsoon and other extreme weather events, including 186 children and 55 women.
