Key points
- EU ministers scramble to finalize 2040 climate target before COP30.
- Failure to agree risks weakening EU’s global climate leadership.
- Industry backlash and high energy costs stall ambitious proposals.
- France seeks flexibility in 2040 target due to forest absorption limits.
BRUSSELS: European Union climate ministers will make a final attempt on Tuesday to agree on a new climate target, hoping to avoid arriving at the UN COP30 summit in Brazil without a unified position.
Failure to reach a deal could undermine the bloc’s longstanding claim to global climate leadership at a summit that will test the resolve of major economies to maintain climate action despite political headwinds — including opposition from US President Donald Trump.
Countries such as China, Britain and Australia have already submitted updated climate targets ahead of COP30.
But the EU despite having some of the world’s most ambitious emissions-cutting policies has faced internal resistance from industries and governments worried about costs, competitiveness, and competing defense and industrial priorities.
EU states previously failed to agree on a 2040 climate target in September, leaving ministers scrambling just days before European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen attends COP30 in Belem, Brazil, on November 6.
A Complex Geopolitical Moment
“The geopolitical landscape has rarely been more complex,” EU climate chief Wopke Hoekstra warned at a climate ministerial meeting in Canada on Saturday.
Still, he expressed confidence that EU countries would ultimately approve a new goal.
“The European Union will continue to do its utmost, even under these circumstances, in Belem to uphold its commitment to multilateralism and to the Paris Agreement,” he said.
Contentious 2040 Target at the Center of Talks
Talks will begin with the European Commission’s proposal for a 90% reduction in net EU greenhouse gas emissions by 2040, compared with 1990 levels — a key milestone on the path to net-zero by 2050.
However, Italy, Poland and the Czech Republic argue the target is too restrictive for domestic industries struggling with high energy costs, competition from cheaper Chinese imports and new US tariffs.
On the other side, countries including the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden point to worsening extreme weather and the need to compete with China in green technologies as reasons to maintain ambitious goals.
The draft compromise, seen by Reuters, includes a clause requested by France allowing the 2040 target to be weakened if EU forests absorb less CO₂ than expected. Brussels has also signaled readiness to adjust other measures to secure support — including controlling prices in a planned carbon market and even considering modifications to the 2035 combustion-engine ban, as requested by Germany.
Dispute Over Foreign Carbon Credits
Another sticking point is how much of the 90% emissions cut EU countries can achieve by purchasing foreign carbon credits, effectively reducing the burden on domestic industries.
France wants the credit share set at 5%, higher than the 3% recommended by the Commission.
Other countries argue funds should instead support European industries rather than buying CO₂ reductions abroad.
Tight Vote Expected
Approval requires backing from at least 15 of the EU’s 27 member states. Diplomats warned Monday that the vote would be tight and could hinge on one or two countries changing their positions at the last minute.
Ministers will first attempt to finalize the 2040 target, which will then allow them to derive the EU’s 2035 emissions pledge — the figure the UN has asked countries to submit ahead of COP30.
