Today, Pakistan faces a two-front challenge: an escalating terror campaign from its western frontier and a strategic encirclement by India. Despite repeated assurances from the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA), the Taliban regime failed to act decisively against the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), both operating from Afghan soil.
Rather than dismantle terrorist infrastructure, the IEA allowed it to expand, with the General Directorate of Intelligence (GDI) providing permissive space that enabled training camps to flourish.
Islamabad repeatedly shared actionable intelligence with Kabul, including coordinates of these sanctuaries, but the response was inadequate; the result has been a dangerous surge of cross-border attacks, with a large percentage of infiltrators identified as Afghan nationals.
The problem has been aggravated by the proliferation of NATO and US origin weapons left behind in Afghanistan. Advanced rifles, M4 carbines, thermal sights and night-vision devices are now in the hands of militant networks, magnifying the lethality of attacks inside Pakistan.
Between 2024 and 2025, Pakistani authorities say more than 700 security personnel and nearly 400 civilians were killed in incidents linked to militants operating from across the border—numbers that reflect the human cost of what Islamabad describes as a sustained proxy war.
The situation reached a searing flashpoint in mid-October. Pakistan’s DG ISPR Lt Gen Ahmed Sharif warned publicly of an emerging troika — the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, India, and the proxy militants such as Fitna al-Khawarij (FAK) — was coordinating against Pakistan.
Barely 36 hours after that warning, on the night of 11–12 October, Pakistani forces repelled a large cross-border assault that the ISPR said involved Afghan Taliban fighters and Indian-backed Khawarij militants; Islamabad reported that over 200 attackers were neutralized while 23 Pakistani soldiers were martyred and 29 wounded in the fighting.
Pakistani military footage and statements underscored the scale and ferocity of the clash.
Complicating matters further was the Afghan foreign minister’s high-profile visit to New Delhi a day before the border clashes start. Amir Khan Muttaqi’s trip to India included high-level meetings with India’s Minister for External Affairs, S. Jaishankar and the National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval.
There was an announcement of India upgrading its diplomatic mission in Kabul, heightened Islamabad’s suspicions of a deeper India-Afghanistan alignment that could empower anti-Pakistan proxies.
Observers note the political symbolism: while Pakistan raised security alarms, Kabul was deepening ties with New Delhi. It is indeed a development Pakistan views as part of a broader asymmetric pressure campaign.
Yet, amid this cauldron of conflict came a sudden diplomatic opening. Doha emerged as a venue for de-escalation, where Qatar and Turkey mediated emergency talks between Pakistani delegations led by Defence Minister Khawaja Asif and senior Afghan representatives.
The negotiations resulted in a ceasefire framework committing both sides to refrain from hostile acts, share intelligence, and prevent their territories from being used for cross-border terrorism. Doha’s accord also set a timetable for a follow-up meeting in Istanbul to institutionalize monitoring and to explore cooperation on terrorism, migration and border management.
International and regional actors welcomed the pause, stressing the need to convert it into durable arrangements. The role of Qatar and Turkey deserves particular recognition. Their mediation helped bring two fractious capitals back to the table and inserted third-party guarantees into an otherwise bilateral security crisis — an important step toward accountability and verifiable action.
Pakistani officials have publicly lauded both countries for stabilizing the situation and facilitating the path to the Istanbul dialogue. But the ceasefire is a precarious reprieve, not a solution.
For Pakistan, Doha represents both a diplomatic success and an unresolved test. The new understanding links future trade, transit and border facilitation to concrete Afghan action against anti-Pakistan terror groups.
For the Taliban, Doha is a moment of truth: either translate pledges into verifiable dismantling of militant networks or face renewed and calibrated Pakistani response — diplomatic, economic and, if required, military.
Pakistan’s patience has been stretched to its limits. The country that hosted millions of Afghan refugees, kept trade channels open, and repeatedly sought dialogue now insists that goodwill cannot be mistaken for weakness.
The message is clear: peace is welcome, but never at the cost of Pakistan’s security. Doha has offered a fragile pathway back from the brink — but the world will watch whether Kabul and its new regional partners turn that pathway into lasting accountability, or whether the terror web will reknit itself under a new guise.
The IEA must choose between peaceful coexistence with Pakistan or partnership with terrorists and its rival, India. Pakistan desires peace and constructive diplomacy but will not tolerate the treacherous use of Afghan soil for terrorism.
This Doha Accord is a strategic test for the Taliban regime and they must choose their side wisely. No matter what their decision would be but there is truly no middle ground left for Afghan terror web!
