NEW YORK: Humanity is nearing the upper limit of life expectancy, according to a new study. Despite advancements in medical technology and genetic research, as well as a growing number of people reaching age 100, researchers found that overall lifespan increases are stagnating, particularly in countries with the highest life expectancies.
- Jay Olshansky, the lead author of the study published in Nature Aging and a researcher at the University of Illinois-Chicago, emphasized the need to acknowledge these limits and reconsider assumptions about retirement age and financial needs for later life. Mark Hayward, a researcher at the University of Texas who was not involved in the study, described it as a significant contribution to mortality literature, agreeing that we are experiencing a plateau in life expectancy. He noted that while future breakthroughs could potentially extend lifespan, none are currently on the horizon.
What is Life Expectancy?
Life expectancy estimates the average number of years a baby born in a particular year might live, assuming current death rates remain constant. It is a crucial health metric, though it has its limitations, as it cannot account for unpredictable events like pandemics or miraculous medical advancements that could significantly alter mortality rates.
In this research, Olshansky and his team analyzed life expectancy data from 1990 to 2019, sourced from the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. They focused on eight of the longest-living regions: Australia, France, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, and Switzerland. While the U.S. does not rank among the top 40, it was included due to its past predictions of significant increases in life expectancy.
Who Lives the Longest?
The study found that women generally live longer than men, and while life expectancy is still improving, the rate of progress is declining. In 1990, life expectancy improved by an average of about 2.5 years per decade, but this dropped to 1.5 years in the 2010s, with almost no improvement noted in the U.S. The U.S. faces unique challenges, including drug overdoses, violence, obesity, and healthcare disparities that contribute to premature deaths.
The researchers also estimated that even if all deaths before age 50 were eliminated, the maximum potential increase in life expectancy across all nine locations would still be only 1.5 years. Eileen Crimmins, a gerontology expert at the University of Southern California, agreed with the study’s conclusions, highlighting the concerning decline of the U.S. in relative life expectancy.
The study suggests that there are inherent limits to human lifespan, which we are approaching. Olshansky stated, “We’re squeezing less and less life out of these life-extending technologies, primarily because aging remains a significant barrier.” While reaching age 100 is becoming more common—such as former U.S. President Jimmy Carter recently achieving that milestone—only about 2% of Americans reached 100 in 2019, compared to approximately 5% in Japan and 9% in Hong Kong. Experts believe that while the number of centenarians will likely increase due to population growth, the percentage of those reaching 100 will remain relatively low, with fewer than 15% of women and 5% of men in most countries likely to achieve that age.
