Scientists are afraid that the recent, rapid warming of the oceans will contribute to global warming.
Global sea surface temperatures surpassed previous records last month. Never before has the temperature increased so rapidly. Scientists are still trying to figure out why this has happened.
However, experts are concerned that, when combined with other weather phenomena, the global temperature may by the end of next year hit a new, unsettling level.
Over the coming months, a powerful El Nio weather event, which is a weather system that heats the water, is also predicted by experts.
Oceans that are too warm can kill off marine life, bring on more severe weather, and increase sea levels. Additionally, they are less effective at absorbing greenhouse gases that warm the globe.
Nearly all of the ocean’s surface has warmed, with the Arctic experiencing particularly pronounced warming of up to two degrees Celsius in certain regions. Southeast of Greenland, there is a specific region that is cooling.
An significant new study that was quietly released this week indicates a concerning development.
The Earth has heated up nearly as much in the last 15 years as it did in the previous 45, with the majority of the additional energy going into the oceans.
This is having real-world repercussions; in April of this year, the oceans’ average temperature not only reached a new record high, but there was also a significant departure from long-term patterns in several locations.
Off the east coast of North America, sea surface temperatures in March were up to 13.8C from the 1981–2011 average.
Mercator Ocean International oceanographer Karina Von Schuckmann, the study’s principal author, stated, “It’s not yet clearly known why such a rapid change, and such a massive change, is happening.
“Over the past 15 years, the amount of heat in the climate system has doubled; I’m not sure if this is due to climate change, natural variability, or a combination of both; we don’t yet know. However, this modification is present.
It’s noteworthy to note that a decline in shipping emissions may be affecting the amount of heat entering the oceans.
The International Maritime Organisation established a rule to lower the sulphur content of ship gasoline in 2020.
The quantity of aerosol particles emitted into the atmosphere has decreased quickly as a result of this.
However, the removal of aerosols may have led to additional heat entering the oceans because they help reflect heat back into space in addition to polluting the air.
The El Nio Southern Oscillation, a meteorological phenomenon, is another significant reason that worries scientists.
This naturally occurring phenomenon, known as La Nia, has been in a colder phase for the previous three years and has contributed to regulating global temperatures.
However, experts currently think that a powerful El Nio is developing, which will have a big impact on the entire world.
“The model used by the Australian Bureau does significantly favour a strong El Nio. Hugh McDowell from Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said that it has been heading in that direction and that all climate models have been trending towards a stronger event.
McDowell issued a warning that forecasts at this time of the year are less trustworthy. More optimistic researchers exist.
A coastal El Nio has already formed off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador, and experts predict a fully fledged event with effects on global temperatures to follow.
Dr. Josef Ludescher of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research stated, “If a new El Nio new comes on top of it, we will probably have additional global warming of 0.2-0.25C.”
The year 2024 will likely be the warmest on record since the effect of an El Nio is relaxed a few months after its peak.
And we might just temporarily cross over since we’ll be approaching 1.5C days.
El Nio is predicted to alter global weather patterns, decrease the monsoon, and increase the risk of wildfires in Australia.
However, there are more fundamental concerns that the ocean’s capacity to retain extra energy may decrease as more heat is absorbed by its waters.
Additionally, there are worries that the oceans’ heat will dissipate. Many of the scientists who were approached for this article were hesitant to discuss the consequences in public.
One person described themselves as “extremely worried and completely stressed.”
According to some studies, the world warms in jumps, with little change occurring over years and then abrupt increases, like stair steps, which are closely associated with the emergence of El Nio.
Karina Von Schuckmann thinks there is some hope in this predicament. After the El Nio passes, temperatures can drop once more.
“We still have a window where we can act, and we should use this to reduce the consequences,” she told BBC News.
