The leadership of the Afghan Taliban is in a catch-22-like situation over its long-time former allies; the Pakistani Taliban groups, whether to turn against them or protect them.
If it takes action against them, a new front is feared to be opened. If they ignore them and let them act freely, then Afghanistan could go back to the 1990s era of isolation.
For sure, the present Taliban leaders would not opt to live in complete isolation, even worse than what they experienced in their first rule during 1996-2001. Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates had recognized the then-Taliban government to open a window to the world. Afghanistan is a landlocked country and has been hit by wars and violence for decades. Afghanistan could face a number of challenges if it ignored the warnings of the international community to regroup the global and regional jihadi outfits on its soil.
It is evident from the public statements and decrees by the top leadership that the Afghan land would not be allowed to be used against any other countries. The Supreme Leader of the Afghan Taliban Movement Sheikh Haibatullah has categorically declared cross-border attacks as un-Islamic and ordered Afghans not to take part in any such misadventures. However, there are some instances in which Afghans were found involved in some of the terrorist attacks.
In the changing scenario, the world expects the Afghan Taliban to follow what was agreed upon in the Doha Peace deal to control such militant groups that could be a threat to global peace and security.
There is no more justification for war in the region as the two-decades-long conflict ended with a peace deal, signed by the US-led NATO and Afghan Taliban, in Doha, Qatar in 2020. Foreign troops left Afghanistan at the end of August 2021, and the Afghan Taliban stepped in to take control of Kabul.
The argument was over, ending the foreign occupation that was achieved. One may agree or disagree with the justification given by the Afghan Taliban that they were fighting or waging ‘Jihad’ against the foreign forces. Is that justification still relevant, and being applied in other Muslim countries? Religious scholars from Islamic countries have termed such uprisings as un-Islamic and forbidden.
The Supreme Leader or what the Taliban calls him ‘Ameer-ul-Moamineen’ Sheikh Haibatullah Akhunzada has categorically ordered Afghans to avoid taking part in ‘Jihad’ beyond the borders of Afghanistan. The words of the ‘Amir’ have been taken as mandatory by his followers. A decree or Fatwa was issued to stop his soldiers and followers from participating in any fighting outside Afghanistan.
However, this could not have put an end to violence, completely. The regional countries were concerned about allegedly using Afghan soil against the neighbors. It was an integral part of the Doha Peace Deal, 2020 that the Taliban would not allow any terrorist organization to use Afghan soil against any country. However, reports found traces of terrorist groups in parts of Afghanistan. The Taliban does not seem to be taking action against the safe havens of militants as it has been campaigning against the Islamic State of Khorasan Province or IS-KP. Kabul has been denying the allegations that its land has been used against other countries.
Pakistan is the first victim of cross-border terrorism since the Taliban took over Afghanistan in 2021. There is an unprecedented rise in terrorist attacks in Pakistan by the groups, allegedly having bases inside Afghanistan. In a recent report by Think Tank, there has been a 73 percent rise in terrorist incidents in Pakistan between 2021 and 2023.
The Taliban is in total control of the country. How is it possible that some militant groups could not be controlled? There is no such area in Pakistan that is under the direct control or influence of the Pakistani militant groups. Thousands of militants fled to Afghanistan nearly a decade ago. Pakistani militant groups like Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and others had set up their bases in the eastern and northeastern provinces of Afghanistan.
The Afghan Taliban is defending the presence of Pakistani Taliban as ‘Pakistani refugees’, displaced by violence and unrest. Whenever the Taliban leadership is asked about the presence of Pakistani militants or the use of Afghan soil, they argue that it is Pakistan’s internal issue and that it should be dealt with politically or militarily in Pakistan. This is not the responsibility of Afghanistan to tackle this issue.
Pakistan has been asking the Taliban to dismantle the bases or hideouts of the terrorist groups, posing a serious security threat to Pakistan. The issue is not as simple as visible to many. The Pakistani Taliban had shown allegiance to the Supreme Leader of the Afghan Taliban, and a longtime ally in the war against the US-led NATO forces in Afghanistan.
This nexus between the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban is there, which stops Kabul from acting against these groups. This complex link has created differences between the two neighboring countries. If the issue of cross-border attacks continues unchecked, this could have a negative impact on the bilateral relations of Pakistan and Afghanistan. No results yet to have the relations on track as the issue has been taken up politically and diplomatically.
The Afghan Taliban should have acted upon the pledges it had made to the International community that it would not allow terrorist groups on its soil. If some militants were living there peacefully without posing a threat to regional and international peace could be accepted.
Pakistan has offered a number of options to end this unending wave of terrorism including a general amnesty and rehabilitation of the militants and their families, but they should surrender to the state. Peace negotiations were held for months that could not yield any results.
A wave of terrorist incidents started following the breaking down of the peace talks with the Pakistani Taliban or TTP. During the investigations, Pakistan claimed that it had found involvement of the Afghans in some of the major attacks.
Islamabad is not blaming Kabul for having direct involvement in a number of terrorist attacks in Pakistan in the year under review, however, it was reminded that the attackers including the Afghan nationals were involved in the major attacks.
The question arises as to why the Afghans do not obey the orders of their supreme leader. This could not be denied rightly by the Afghan Taliban, but it should look into its ranks and files as a kind of support is being provided to the terrorists or if the order of the top leader is not being implemented.
If some elements within the Afghan Taliban are so powerful or influential that they defy the orders of the leadership, then this could have serious implications for the Taliban government. This is a challenging task to keep the Taliban in order. The International community is closely monitoring the situation in Afghanistan, and such incidents could take longer than expected time to get recognition.
The Afghan government or what the Taliban calls it ‘Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’ has not been recognized by the world. Afghanistan should not be made a hotbed for terrorist organizations, one of the basic demands of the international and regional players. This is now the responsibility of the Taliban leadership to end the menace of terrorism by dismantling the centers of militant groups or rule without international recognition, but for how long?
