By: Zaman Bajwa
The Conference of the Parties (COP) is a norm established by the United Nations to foster collaboration for sustainable development. Since the inaugural COP in 1995, which aimed to address climate change, Europe, America, Africa, and Asia have hosted annual COPs to tackle greenhouse gas emissions. These gatherings have effectively highlighted critical issues and spurred productive developments. However, despite these efforts, the world is still devastated by climate catastrophes. With the anticipation of COP28, we will shed light on COP27’s shortcomings, which have wrought devastation upon developing countries, and will also outline the agenda of COP28.
Undoubtedly, COP has generated numerous positive developments. The first COP laid the foundation for future climate cooperation by establishing the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Likewise, COP3 in Kyoto (1997) marked a pivotal moment, culminating in the Kyoto Protocol, which imposed legally binding emissions reduction targets on wealthier nations. The Bali Road Map, conceived during COP13 in Bali in 2007, laid the groundwork for negotiations regarding a post-Kyoto accord. Additionally, the adoption of the Paris Agreement at COP21 in Paris (2015) represented a historic turning point, as nations united in their determination to limit global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius.
Despite these advancements, climate change has ravaged our planet, revealing humanity’s responsibility for the damage. Rapid industrialization, greenhouse gas emissions, and excessive plastic consumption by first-world countries stand out as glaring examples of human negligence. These activities have significantly elevated global temperatures, resulting in droughts, floods, and heat waves in underdeveloped countries.
Approximately 14% of the global population resides in the 46 least developed nations. Surprisingly, they have had only a modest impact on CO2 emissions. Estimates suggest that in 2019, Least developed countries were responsible for just around 1.1% of the world’s total CO2 emissions resulting from fossil fuel combustion, significantly lower than the emissions generated by industrial operations in first-world nations. Even when examined on a per capita basis, Least Developed Countries’ CO2 emissions accounted for just approximately 10% of the global average.
Despite historically contributing the least to climate change, least developed countries remain at the forefront of climate action. Over the past five decades, a staggering 69% of climate-related disaster-induced fatalities worldwide occurred within least developed countries, underscoring the urgency of their proactive stance.
While the ongoing harm to the Earth’s ecosystem continues, world leaders convene to discuss a sustainable future, even if at times it might seem like an idealized world. In order to advance mutual benefit and growth-friendly goals, initiatives such as the Bridgetown Covenant, the Doha Programme of Action for the Least Developed Countries for the Decade 2022-2031 (DPoA), and the broader 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development were put forth during COP27.
These initiatives were essential steps towards addressing the challenges posed by climate change and achieving a sustainable future for all. However, international assistance for Least Developed Countries’ adaptation and sustainable development remains notably inadequate. This inadequacy extends to access to eco-friendly technologies and climate finance. Additionally, institutional and capacity limitations have also constrained opportunities for successful and equitable partnerships, giving rise to difficult trade-offs between expediting progress toward the realization of fundamental human rights, particularly the right to development, and taking effective climate action.
Moreover, it was also decided under the Conference of Parties 27 umbrella that developed nations whose carbon emissions exceed the limit should provide loss and damage funds to developing countries that bear the brunt. Regrettably, the flow of funds remains unchecked. The United Nations, under the banner of humanitarian aid rather than social justice, has stripped developing countries of their right to justice. Consequently, this discourse failed to compel developed countries to provide financial assistance to economically vulnerable nations struggling to cope with the damages of climate change.
This can be evident in Pakistan, whose global carbon emission is less than 1 percent. According to a World Bank report on climate, Pakistan experienced a severe economic crisis with a depreciating currency and a high rate of inflation. This stagnant situation occurred due to many reasons, but the immediate one was the gushing floods of 2022. According to the report, $348 billion was needed to cope with such catastrophes and attain sustainable growth. Nevertheless, the World powers pledged to fund only $10 billion at the Geneva Conference in 2023, but have still given only $131 million to Pakistan so far.
Apart from Pakistan, other developing countries also consider COP27 a failure as the pledge to provide US $100 billion per year remains theoretical. This is primarily due to the fact that the anticipated US$100 billion annually has not yet materialized in full. The main problem associated with this failure is the willingness to distribute the money where it is most needed.
The major bone of contention was loss and damage itself. The First World did not want to be held responsible for the consequences of climate change, so the United States, Europe, and the United Kingdom vetoed the establishment of the Glasgow loss and damage center at COP26 with the help of China. Additionally, the lack of leadership also counts as a setback; COP27 was held in Egypt, whose Presidency was weak and left everything to the parties to decide and reach a consensus. Therefore, no agreement was drafted about who would pay how much, what the funding stream would be, and critically, who would lead, control, and manage these funds.
COP28 can learn from the past mistakes of COP27 and could aim to avoid their repetition. First, the UAE leadership must take full charge of building consensus, initiating negotiations right away, and working diligently over the next 12 months to ensure that all nations are ready to reach a definitive agreement by the end. In order for all nations to understand what is being negotiated and for confidence to be rebuilt, the next COP must conduct an open and transparent process.
Furthermore, nations with unambitious pledges must be pushed to the limit of greenhouse gas emissions reduction. Focusing on phasing out fossil fuels is key to staying below the 1.5°C limit.
Lastly, wealthy rising economies and high-income nations should contribute to adjustment funds and establish a functional and open loss and damage facility. The goal of COP28, hosted in the UAE, is to make climate justice the focal point of the talks. As money will need to be put on the table for adaptation, loss, and damages, as well as a swift ramp-up of renewables, this concept must be at the center of the COP28 negotiations.
