ISLAMABAD: Pakistan – after affected by multiple manifestations of increasing global warming, the environmental degradation, changes in the patterns of monsoon and rise in temperatures – is likely to face dengue outbreaks in non-vulnerable high-altitude areas, a study revealed.
A study carried out by the experts and scientists from the National Institute of Health (NIH), Health Services Academy (HSA) and Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) titled “Modelling the impact of climate change on dengue outbreaks and future spatiotemporal shift in Pakistan” addressed substantial impacts of climate change on the spread and intensity of dengue outbreaks.
It was published in a prominent health and environmental journal Environmental Geochemistry and Health. It underscored different outcomes highlighting rise and decline in the outbreak scenarios of dengue disease.
The aim of the research was to evaluate the number of suitable days for the dengue transmission in Pakistan for the baseline 1976 to 2005 and future 2006 to 2035, 20141 to 2070, and 2071 to 2099 periods under Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios.
Suitable days for dengue transmission to increase in non-hotspot areas
The study said that the days suitable for dengue transmission would spread across the country, especially in areas where dengue cases never reported. However, there was good news also that these days in current hotspot areas could be decrease in future due to climate change.
The study while showing spike during the baseline period of 1975 to 2005, identified top 10 hotspot cities Hyderabad, Jhelum, Karachi, Peshawar, Balakot, Lahore, Islamabad, Faisalabad and Sialkot.
The spiking temperatures in the North worried researchers, as due to climate change there was an elevation-dependent shift in the suitable days for dengue transmission, to high altitude cities in Azad Kashmir, Gilgit Baltistan, Federal Capital and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
It said that in 2020s2, Muzaffarabad, Kotli and Drosh; in the 2050s, Quetta, Garhi Dopatta and Zhob; and in the 2080s, Chitral and Bunji could see this shift.
Research cautioned that Islamabad, Karachi and Balakot will remain highly vulnerable to dengue disease for all periods this century.
The outcomes show a higher rate of the suitable days during monsoon season in the baseline in the study area excluding South Punjab and Sindh.
