KEY POINTS
- Weather shifts are adversely affecting agriculture, tourism and local livelihoods
- Extreme weather also threatening millions who depend on Gilgit-Baltistan’s glaciers for water
GILGIT, Pakistan: The stunning valleys of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), home to some of the world’s highest peaks, including K2, Broad Peak, and Gasherbrum, are experiencing increasingly extreme and unpredictable weather shifts.
These alarming changes highlight the escalating impact of climate change in Pakistan’s mountainous north, which holds the largest ice mass outside the polar regions.
With a population of around two million and covering 72,971 square kilometres, Gilgit-Baltistan has traditionally followed a predictable seasonal cycle.
However, in recent years, erratic weather events—unseasonal snowfall, intense heatwaves, fluctuating rainfall—have increasingly disrupted life across the region.
The consequences are severe, adversely affecting agriculture, tourism, and daily survival in this high-altitude landscape.
Escalating extreme weather
This year, Gilgit-Baltistan witnessed snowfall during typically mild months, February and March rather than the usual October to January period, followed by sudden heatwaves in early spring.
Rainfall patterns have become increasingly erratic, with prolonged dry spells abruptly interrupted by heavy downpours and unseasonal snowfall.
Rising temperatures are accelerating glacial melting, which in turn is altering precipitation patterns.” – Senior meteorologist, Pakistan Meteorological Department.
The impact on agriculture, a primary livelihood for many, has been devastating. “Our crops are either drying up due to sudden heat or getting destroyed by unseasonal rains,” says Aslam Khan, a farmer from Gilgit, describing how nature is calling the shots.
Tourism decline
Tourism, a major economic driver, is also suffering as unpredictable weather discourages travellers from visiting the region’s iconic mountains, glaciers, and valleys.
From 2016 to 2021, the number of tourists remained between two to three million annually, according to the then Chief Minister Hafeezur Rehman.
The trend continued in subsequent years, with former Chief Minister Khalid Khursheed citing figures exceeding two million between 2020 and 2022.
However, recent statistics indicate a decline.
According to the Gilgit-Baltistan Tourism Department, nearly one million tourists visited the region in 2024, slightly more than the 0.9 million recorded in 2023.
Mounting climate disasters
These climate shifts have also triggered a rise in flash floods, glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), and landslides, causing widespread damage to infrastructure and displacing communities.
In 2022, flash floods in Ghizer valley, about 120-kilometre (km) west of Gilgit, and Diamer, about 140 km south of Gilgit, claimed several lives and washed away roads, homes, and bridges.
At least five people lost their lives, while nearly three dozen houses and 50 bridges, mostly footbridges, were swept away.
Likewise, according to data collected by WE News English from various sources in Gilgit and Baltistan regions, floods in August 2023 wreaked havoc in Ghanche valley, about 310 km east of Gilgit, and Shigar, roughly 300 km southeast.
The floods destroyed trees and orchards, leaving families homeless.
The Hassanabad Bridge on the Karakoram Highway in Hunza valley was swept away by floodwaters following a glacial lake outburst, underscoring the region’s growing vulnerability.
GB has the potential to generate 60,000 megawatts of hydropower. Properly harnessed, this could provide clean energy to the region and beyond, reducing reliance on firewood, preserving forests, and [ultimately] combat climate change.” – Prof. Dr. Maisoor Ahmed.
These events highlight the increasing fragility of Pakistan’s northernmost region, which holds vital glacial reserves. Gilgit-Baltistan is home to five of the 14 eight-thousanders, including K2, and boasts more than 50 peaks exceeding 7,000 meters.
It also contains three of the longest glaciers outside of the polar regions, serving as a crucial water source for millions downstream.
Experts directly link these weather patterns to climate change. “Rising temperatures are accelerating glacial melting, which in turn is altering precipitation patterns,” says a senior meteorologist from the Pakistan Meteorological Department.
Manzoor Ahmed Qureshi, a climate change expert leading a programme at the Gilgit-Baltistan Rural Support Programme (GBRSP), stresses the urgency of adaptation.
“This is all happening due to climate change, and we must take proactive steps to mitigate its effects,” he contends.
Firewood dependency
In Gilgit-Baltistan, firewood has long been the primary source of heating and cooking, but it contributes to deforestation, further exacerbating environmental challenges.
Qureshi cautions that deforestation accelerates land degradation, increasing the severity of flash floods and landslides.
A five-member family burns approximately 2,800 kg of firewood over six months, from Nov to March. Prof. Dr. Maisoor Ahmed of Gilgit’s Karakoram International University highlights that unless an alternative is provided, tree felling will continue unchecked.
“Although we don’t have official data available, we can estimate that on average about 15 to 20 kg wood is burned daily by one household for four to five months in winters,” says Ahmed who previously worked with a non-governmental organisation working on conservation of natural resources in Gilgit-Baltistan.
We are developing early warning systems and promoting sustainable agricultural practices to help communities adapt.” – Khadim Hussain, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Director.
The only sustainable solution, he argues, is transitioning to hydropower. “GB has the potential to generate 60,000 megawatts of hydropower.
Properly harnessed, this could provide clean energy to the region and beyond, reducing reliance on firewood, preserving forests, and [ultimately] combat climate change.”
Mitigation plans
Authorities acknowledge the severity of the crisis and claim to be implementing mitigation strategies. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Director Khadim Hussain states, “We are developing early warning systems and promoting sustainable agricultural practices to help communities adapt.”
Hussain says that as part of the government policy, construction in disaster-prone areas will be banned, and afforestation efforts will be intensified.
Forests and Wildlife GB Additional Secretary Zaid Ahmad announced a large-scale afforestation campaign, aiming to plant over two million trees this year.
“Strict measures are in place to curb illegal deforestation, and offenders will face legal action,” he said.
He also highlighted the ‘Forest Working Plan’ for the Darel and Tangir valleys, which incentivises local communities by allowing them to sell deadwood while strictly banning fresh cutting.
Long-term solutions
The changing climate in Gilgit-Baltistan reflects global trends of rising temperatures and extreme weather.
If these patterns persist, experts warn of severe consequences, including biodiversity loss, shrinking forests, increased glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), water shortages due to rapid glacier melt, and displacement of communities.
To combat these challenges, climate experts advocate for afforestation programmes to restore forests, sustainable water management to control glacial meltwater, investment in climate-resilient agriculture, and development of renewable energy projects, particularly hydropower.
Without urgent action, Gilgit-Baltistan—a region crucial to Pakistan’s water security—will continue to face devastating climate impacts, endangering both local communities and the millions who rely on its glaciers for water.
