Monitoring Desk
SHANGHAI: China marked the first day of “Chun Yun” on Saturday, the 40 days of Lunar New Year travel known pre-COVID-pandemic as the world’s biggest annual migration of people, bracing for a massive surge in travellers and the spread of COVID-19 disease.
This Lunar New Year public holiday officially runs from January 21, 2023, and will be the first since 2020 without domestic travel restrictions.
During the last month, China has seen the dramatic dismantling of its “zero-COVID” policy following historic protests against a COVID policy that included frequent testing, movement restrictions, mass lockdowns, and heavy loss to the world’s No two economy.
Investors hope the reopening will eventually reinvigorate a $17 trillion economy suffering its lowest economic growth in nearly half a century.
Mass migration after policy change
But the abrupt policy changes have exposed many of the 1.4 billion population of China to the virus for the first time, triggering a wave of new infections that are overwhelming some hospitals, emptying pharmacy shelves of medication, and long lines at crematoriums.
On Friday, China’s Ministry of Transport said that it expects over 2 billion passengers to take trips over the next 40 days, an increase of 99.5 percent year-on-year and reaching 70.3 percent of 2019 trip numbers.
There was mixed reaction to that news online, with some comments hailing the relaxation of returning to hometowns and celebrating the Lunar New Year for the first time in years with family.
Many others said they would not travel this year, with the worry of infecting elderly relatives a common concern.
There are widespread concerns that the massive migration of workers from cities to their hometowns will cause an increase in infections in smaller towns and rural areas not well-equipped with ICU beds and ventilators to deal with COVID infections.
Julian Evans-Pritchard, the senior China economist at Capital Economics, acknowledged that risk in a Friday note but said, “in big cities that make up much of China’s economy, it seems the worst has passed.”
Ernan Cui, an analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics in Beijing, cited several online surveys indicating that the current wave of infections may have already peaked in most regions, noting there was “not much difference between urban and rural areas.”
