BEIJING: The recent disappearance of China’s defence minister has added to the growing uncertainty surrounding President Xi Jinping’s rule, as internal security concerns take precedence over international engagement. This increasing unpredictability has raised questions about the confidence other countries have in the leadership of the world’s second-largest economy, according to diplomats and analysts.
Defense Minister Li Shangfu, who has been absent from public view since late August, is currently under investigation in connection with a corruption probe related to military procurement, as reported by a news agency. His unexplained absence has raised eyebrows, as he has missed crucial meetings, including those with foreign counterparts.
This disappearance follows the vanishing act of newly appointed Foreign Minister Qin Gang, who similarly disappeared in July. This coincided with a sudden shake-up in the military’s elite Rocket Force, responsible for overseeing China’s nuclear arsenal.
President Xi has recently turned his focus inward, causing concern among foreign diplomats when he missed a Group of 20 summit in India, marking the first time he has skipped such a global gathering during his decade in power.
In light of these growing uncertainties, some diplomats and analysts are advocating for a deeper examination of the nature of Xi’s regime. Drew Thompson, a former Pentagon official and now a scholar at the National University of Singapore, emphasized the importance of clear-eyed assessments. He noted that this issue isn’t just about determining whether China is a partner or a competitor but also a source of economic, political, and military risk.
The lack of transparency surrounding these changes has led to various speculations, contributing to a crisis of confidence surrounding China. China’s Foreign Ministry has not provided immediate responses to inquiries about these developments.
Concerning Defence Minister Li’s disappearance and investigation, a ministry spokeswoman claimed she was unaware of the situation. Neither the State Council nor the Defence Ministry has commented on the matter.
Li had been a prominent figure in China’s expanding military diplomacy, voicing concerns about U.S. military operations during a significant security conference in June and undertaking visits to Russia and Belarus in August. He was expected to host an international security meeting in Beijing in October and represent the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) at a meeting of regional defence chiefs in Jakarta in November.
With corruption deeply rooted in China’s military and state institutions, some analysts and diplomats believe that Xi’s anti-graft crackdowns are, in reality, political purges within the Communist Party.
Helena Legarda, lead analyst with the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Berlin, noted that regardless of the reasons behind these developments, the uncertainty could affect foreign actors’ confidence in engaging with their Chinese counterparts.
The suddenness and opacity of these changes are particularly striking. It’s becoming apparent that proximity to power doesn’t necessarily guarantee patronage in Xi’s world, as highlighted by Alexander Neill, a security analyst based in Singapore.
Li, who was sanctioned by Washington in 2018 for an arms deal with Russia, declined a meeting with U.S. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin at the Shangri-la Dialogue security conference in June, marking their closest interaction with a handshake. Austin and other U.S. officials are eager to resume high-level talks with China as regional tensions persist. However, Beijing insists that Washington should adopt a less assertive stance in the Asia-Pacific region.
Regional envoys emphasize the importance of deeper Chinese military diplomacy, particularly with the U.S. and other major powers, as China continues to increase its military presence around Taiwan and in disputed areas of the East and South China Seas.
The recent developments, particularly Defence Minister Li’s unexplained absence, have led to speculation and concern about the continuity of China’s foreign policy. As the People’s Liberation Army engages more with Southeast Asian forces, these swift changes in Beijing raise questions about the direction of China’s military and diplomatic efforts.
