Key points
- Trump imposes 50pc tariffs, straining US-India ties
- Ceasefire with Pakistan sparks backlash from Modi’s base
- Congress alleges BJP rigged 2024 general elections
- Bihar election seen as critical test for Modi
ISLAMABAD: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is navigating one of the most difficult phases of his 11-year premiership, as a series of political and diplomatic challenges converge.
A controversial ceasefire with Pakistan, fresh scrutiny over his age, and worsening ties with the United States – despite his once-celebrated relationship with former President Donald Trump – are putting Modi’s leadership under intense pressure, according to Reuters.
BIG BREAKING !!
Modi didn’t win fair and square- 70 to 80 seats were rigged to make him Prime Minister.
— Rahul Gandhi, LoP pic.twitter.com/nMna1GdAzA
— ISHA VERMA (@IshaVerma__) August 2, 2025
In addition, Modi faces mounting allegations from the opposition Congress party, accusing his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of vote-rigging during the 2024 general elections. The accusations come ahead of a crucial state election in Bihar, one of India’s most politically important and populous regions.
A defeat in Bihar would not directly threaten Modi’s grip on power at the national level, but it would be a major reputational setback for a leader who has maintained a stronghold on Indian politics for over a decade.
Trump’s tariffs
Adding to Modi’s troubles, the Trump administration this week imposed a 50 per cent tariff on Indian imports — among the highest rates globally — causing a sharp downturn in the Indo-US relationship. The move stands in stark contrast to their earlier camaraderie, which featured public embraces and frequent declarations of friendship.
President Trump’s threat of 50% tariffs on Indian exports to the US mark an escalation in a breakdown of the relationship between the two countries that started in the wake of May’s India-Pakistan conflict https://t.co/pmCRmxsPTP
📷: Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images pic.twitter.com/m4TJ09LK0j
— Bloomberg (@business) August 8, 2025
“The Indo-US relation sort of revolved around the personalities of Donald Trump and Narendra Modi,” said New Delhi-based political analyst Arati Jerath. “So now when it’s souring, Modi has no buffer at all. There is a fair amount of disappointment that this strong leader has not been able to show the kind of strength and muscularity that he claimed to have,” reports Reuters.
Modi has begun pushing back. Speaking at a public event on Thursday, he declared his unwavering support for Indian farmers, without directly addressing the tariff row.
Paying heavy price
“India will never compromise on the interests of its farmers, livestock rearers and fishermen,” he said. “And I am fully aware that I may have to pay a very heavy price personally, but I am prepared for it.”
Analysts believe the issue of US tariffs will become a central theme in the Bihar campaign, expected to begin next month. However, according to a recent VoteVibe poll, Modi’s ruling alliance is likely to struggle in the state, primarily due to widespread unemployment.
“There is no over-arching theme other than unemployment,” said VoteVibe founder Amitabh Tiwari, who noted that a nationalist backlash against Trump is unlikely to influence voters in what he called a “hyper-local election.”
INDIA: Prime Minister Modi will visit China for the first time in seven years, amid rising tensions with the Trump Administration. pic.twitter.com/2u48wjM3Ij
— The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) August 7, 2025
As tensions with Washington rise, Modi appears to be recalibrating India’s foreign policy. He is expected to visit China soon and may meet both President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Mounting pressure
He also held talks with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Thursday to discuss the tariff situation. Both India and Brazil — founding BRICS members often criticised by Trump — have been significantly impacted by the new US trade measures.
Still, his own support base has shown signs of unease, particularly after the sudden ceasefire with Pakistan in May, which followed the most serious military escalation between the two countries in years.
The truce was met with domestic controversy, and Modi’s government has denied Trump’s claims of playing a role in brokering the deal. Meanwhile, Trump has drawn closer to Pakistan, which publicly thanked him — complicating India’s diplomatic stance.
Rigging elections
Back home, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi accused the BJP and the Election Commission of “rigging and stealing” the election by allegedly adding fake names to voter rolls. “There is a huge criminal fraud being perpetrated on this country by the Election Commission and the party in power,” he said.
The BJP dismissed the claims as “Congress’s frustration at repeated electoral losses,” adding: “When Rahul Gandhi can’t cheat his way to power, he calls it a conspiracy.”
The Election Commission urged Gandhi to “stop arriving at absurd conclusions and misleading the citizens of India.”
Modi’s future
As Modi nears his 75th birthday next month, questions about his future have surfaced. Traditionally, BJP leaders step aside at that age, but the party insists there is no formal retirement rule.
Analysts say the coming weeks will be crucial.
“Mr. Modi’s brand value is now diminishing very fast, he needs to reinvent himself,” said Rasheed Kidwai, visiting fellow at the Observer Research Foundation. “The sheen will come off particularly if he loses the Bihar election. Because in India, elections determine everything.”
