WASHINGTON: Recent border tensions between Iran and the Taliban government in Afghanistan have raised concerns about the potential for a wider conflict between the two nations. The clashes have resulted in the deaths of several military personnel from both sides, highlighting deep-rooted fissures and historical grievances between the neighboring countries.
Experts participating in a session organized by the Middle East Institute in Washington emphasized that while both governments have taken steps to de-escalate tensions, the risk of war or a broader conflict between Iran and Afghanistan remains plausible.
The sources of tension identified by experts include border demarcation disputes, the issue of water flowing from Afghanistan’s Helmand River into Iran, Iran’s reluctance to formally recognize the Taliban government, and the Taliban’s anti-Iran stance.
Fatemeh Aman, an expert on Iran and Afghanistan and a non-resident senior fellow at the MEI, pointed out that Iran has never severed its ties with the Taliban and has provided weapons support to the Islamic movement in the past, seeking to expand its influence and counter the US presence in the region during the American military occupation of Afghanistan. Aman emphasized that Iran’s policies toward Afghanistan have remained consistent since the Iranian Revolution in 1979.
However, Aman also noted that Iran is aware that engaging in a conflict with Afghanistan would not lead to an easy victory, as regional actors would likely find a way to intervene against Iran. The potential involvement of these “spoilers” adds another layer of complexity to the situation.
Iran’s Strategic Interests in Afghanistan
Nilofar Sakhi, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, highlighted three strategic interests for Iran in Afghanistan: economic expansion, security, and the Shiite-Sunni divide. Sakhi stated that Iran aims to utilize Afghanistan as a gateway to Central Asian markets while preventing violence and instability from spilling over its border.
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the MEI, criticized Iran for neglecting its engagement with Afghanistan, despite its geographical proximity and the country’s longstanding instability. He noted that Iran has been preoccupied with its involvement in the Arab world instead.
Andrew Watkins, a senior expert on Afghanistan at the US Institute of Peace, pointed out that the water issue between Iran and Afghanistan predates the current governments. He highlighted climate change as a significant factor, with the flow of water fluctuating seasonally as the Taliban increases it during winter and reduces it during summer months.
The Helmand River Water Treaty, signed in 1973, remains the only agreement specifically addressing the allocation of water from Afghan territories into Iran.
