Australia and South Africa Can Still Qualify for Champions Trophy Semis Despite Losses in Final Group B Matches

Thu Feb 27 2025
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ISLAMABAD: In Group B of the 2025 Champions Trophy, Australia and South Africa are currently one point ahead of Afghanistan.

Despite losing their final group match, both teams still have a chance to qualify for the semi-finals.

South Africa secured a dominant victory over Afghanistan, while Australia triumphed over England in their opening games.

The match between South Africa and Australia was abandoned, leaving both teams with three points.

Afghanistan then won in their next match, reaching two points and eliminating England from the competition.

Champions Trophy 2025 Group B points table after Afghanistan v England

Team
Matches
Won
Lost
NR
Points
NRR
South Africa
2
1
0
1
3
+2.140
Australia
2
1
0
1
3
+0.475
Afghanistan
2
1
1
0
2
-0.990
England
2
0
2
0
0
-0.305

 

Champions Trophy 2025 Group B matches left

February 28: Australia v Afghanistan, Karachi
March 1: England v South Africa, Karachi

What do Australia and South Africa need?

A win will help either of the two sides overcome Afghanistan’s reach and guarantee them a semi-final berth. Some other options also guarantee semi-finalists.

Winner Feb 28
Winner Mar 1
Qualification
Australia
South Africa
Australia (5), South Africa (5)
Australia
England
Australia (5), South Africa (5)
Afghanistan
South Africa
South Africa (5), Afghanistan (4)
Afghanistan
England
Afghanistan (4)
Australia
no result
Australia (5), South Africa (4)
Afghanistan
no result
Afghanistan (4), South Africa (4)
no result
South Africa
South Africa (5), Australia (4)
no result
England
Australia (4)
no result
no result
Australia (4), South Africa (4)

 

In other words, there are two possible ways in which net run rate will get involved. In such cases, England have to beat South Africa.

In the first, Afghanistan have to beat Australia. In the second, Australia-Afghanistan will be a no result.

Afghanistan beating Australia, England beating South Africa

This would leave Afghanistan with four points, while both Australia and South Africa would have three. However, South Africa would have a significant advantage in net run rate.

Let’s assume Australia loses by the smallest margin possible—just one run. If Afghanistan scores 325 (the same total they made against England) and Australia gets 324, Australia’s net run rate would end up at +0.191.

South Africa would fall behind if England scores 350 and South Africa only manages 262 (or 325-237, or 300-212—roughly an 88-run difference).

Australia-Afghanistan no result, England beating South Africa

If the Australia-Afghanistan match ends in a no result and England beats South Africa, Australia would qualify with four points, while Afghanistan and South Africa would each have three.

Afghanistan would qualify only if England scores 350 and South Africa makes just 143 (around a 207-run margin).

South Africa is nearly guaranteed to qualify even with a loss unless they lose by an enormous margin and Australia also loses.

Australia, on the other hand, would be in a stronger position with a win but still has a chance to progress if they lose, as South Africa plays last and will know exactly what they need to do.

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