TRIPOLI: Oil-rich but war-torn North African country Libya has for years been ruled by two rival governments, but now some observers see dizzy signs of progress toward reconciliation between the two sides.
They point to disagreement within one of the camps, based in the east and supported by military strongman Khalifa Haftar, where the parliament last week suspended its former prime minister Fathi Bashagha.
Paradoxically, the analysts say, the political demise of Bashaga could make Haftar’s camp move toward rapprochement with the internationally recognized government in the capital Tripoli.
Some experts even suggest this could aid United Nations-led efforts seeking fresh elections this year in Libya, which has been torn by bloody riots since the overthrow of dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011
The political burst in the east has pushed back the fortunes of Bashagha, who launched an attack on Tripoli last year that was retaliated after a day of deadly street fighting.
The former premier was suspended on May 16 by the eastern-based parliament, which also announced an investigation against him for unknown reasons.
The action against Bashagha “sealed the end of the political life of this former strongman,” stated analyst Hasni Abidi of the Geneva-based Institute for Mediterranean and Arab Cultures.
Abidi further said that his humiliating departure displayed the differences in the eastern camp, particularly between the Haftar clan represented by his sons and the parliament.
Meanwhile, Tripoli-based interim Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah has used the “paralysis of the eastern government to firm his grip on economic and political life in Libya,” he added.
The post-Gaddafi era witnessed over a decade of bloody violence, creating militants, warlords, and foreign mercenaries that claimed countless lives, leaving the country in chaos.
The Egypt-backed Haftar, who was a soldier of Gaddafi’s era and turned exile, launched an assault on Tripoli in 2019 resulted in the loss of thousands of lives but ultimately failed. The conflicting parties reached a formal cease-fire in October of the next year.
Fresh Election, First Step Towards Reconciliation in Libya
Since then, the UN re-initiated its efforts to push the country to fresh elections but in vain.
Bashaga, from the port city of Misrata with a strong political profile [articulalry in the western camp, had managed to have the support of Haftar 2021, in the line to work for “national reconciliation.”
His suspension comes ahead of a mid-June deadline announced by the UN for the rival political powers to agree on a framework to hold fresh polls before the end of the year.
An observer from a Switzerland-based research body Emadeddin Badi said that Bashagha “always had an expiry date,” adding that “His usefulness ended the day he lost the possibility of establishing himself in Tripoli,”.
Meanwhile, Libyan media reported that talks were held between representatives of Dbeibah and Haftar.
Researcher Jalel Harchaoui said that one of Haftar’s sons and a nephew of Dbeibah were in contact for talks for the last few months, adding that continued talks between the two might be one of the reasons for the fall of Bashagha.
Abdoulaye Bathily, head of the UN Support Mission in Libya, hoped for an agreement by mid-June to hold new elections before December this year.
A political analyst in Libya, Abdallah Al-Rayes, said the rival camps’ new understandings are the culmination of “discreet negotiations in Cairo” in the context of having a new coalition government.
However, Harchaoui was less optimistic, adding that the elites already well in place today would hardly agree to surrender power to allow authentic and credible elections.
