WASHINGTON, DC: Recent developments in the Gulf region have raised concerns among US-based analysts about the potential for a “dangerous” escalation in tensions between the United States and Iran.
Despite efforts to resolve their differences through diplomacy, the ongoing military buildup by the United States in the Gulf has added complexity to an already strained relationship.
The Pentagon’s announcement of the deployment of thousands of US troops to the Gulf region has sparked discussions about the potential consequences of this move. The primary objective behind this deployment is to safeguard crucial shipping lanes, including the strategically significant Strait of Hormuz, in order to counter what the US perceives as Iranian “harassment.”
In an unprecedented move, reports from the Associated Press news agency have suggested that the US military is considering the placement of armed personnel on commercial ships navigating through the Strait of Hormuz. Such a step, if implemented, could significantly escalate tensions in the region and prompt unforeseen reactions.
Unsurprisingly, Iran reacted strongly to these reports. Iranian authorities indicated that, in response to these perceived provocations, the Revolutionary Guard navy would be equipped with advanced drones and missiles. This announcement further underscores the precarious state of US-Iran relations and the rapid potential for escalation.
Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy think tank in Washington, DC, has criticized the current approach to Iran taken by the United States. Toossi argues that the Biden administration’s strategy seems to be an extension of the previous administration’s policies, which he perceives as a failed approach centred around economic pressure and escalation.
The roots of the current tensions trace back to 2018 when the United States, under President Donald Trump, withdrew from a multilateral nuclear deal with Iran. The deal had aimed to curb Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for lifting international economic sanctions. The subsequent years have seen a gradual deterioration in US-Iran relations, marked by mutual distrust and confrontational rhetoric.
Toossi’s analysis suggests that history has shown that the US’s policy of escalating pressure often leads to a dangerous cycle of counter-escalation, particularly when dealing with countries like Iran. This cycle of tit-for-tat actions and reactions can potentially lead to unintended consequences, undermining diplomatic efforts and increasing the risk of military confrontation.
